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      War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009

      , ,

      Journal of Peace Research

      SAGE Publications

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          Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate.

          It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant interannual mode of the modern climate, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Niño years relative to La Niña years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.
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            A Fifteen Year Record of Global Natural Gas Flaring Derived from Satellite Data

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              Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics

               X. Chen,  W Nordhaus (2011)
              A pervasive issue in social and environmental research has been how to improve the quality of socioeconomic data in developing countries. Given the shortcomings of standard sources, the present study examines luminosity (measures of nighttime lights visible from space) as a proxy for standard measures of output (gross domestic product). We compare output and luminosity at the country level and at the 1° latitude × 1° longitude grid-cell level for the period 1992-2008. We find that luminosity has informational value for countries with low-quality statistical systems, particularly for those countries with no recent population or economic censuses.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Peace Research
                Journal of Peace Research
                SAGE Publications
                0022-3433
                1460-3578
                September 06 2013
                September 06 2013
                : 50
                : 5
                : 545-561
                Article
                10.1177/0022343313492991
                © 2013

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