Moritz U. G. Kraemer , 1 , 2 , 3 , Robert C. Reiner Jr 4 , Oliver J. Brady 5 , 6 , Jane P. Messina 7 , 8 , Marius Gilbert 9 , 10 , David M. Pigott 4 , Dingdong Yi 11 , Kimberly Johnson 4 , Lucas Earl 4 , Laurie B. Marczak 4 , Shreya Shirude 4 , Nicole Davis Weaver 4 , Donal Bisanzio 12 , 13 , T. Alex Perkins 14 , Shengjie Lai 15 , 16 , 17 , Xin Lu 18 , 19 , 20 , Peter Jones 21 , Giovanini E. Coelho 22 , Roberta G. Carvalho 23 , Wim Van Bortel 24 , 25 , Cedric Marsboom 26 , Guy Hendrickx 26 , Francis Schaffner 27 , Chester G. Moore 28 , Heinrich H. Nax 29 , Linus Bengtsson 17 , 30 , Erik Wetter 17 , 31 , Andrew J. Tatem 16 , 17 , John S. Brownstein 2 , 3 , David L. Smith 4 , Louis Lambrechts 32 , Simon Cauchemez 33 , Catherine Linard 9 , 34 , Nuno R. Faria 1 , Oliver G. Pybus 1 , Thomas W. Scott 35 , Qiyong Liu 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , Hongjie Yu 15 , G. R. William Wint 1 , 40 , Simon I. Hay , 4 , Nick Golding , 41
4 March 2019
The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
Statistical mapping techniques provide insights into the spread of two key arbovirus vectors in Europe and the United States, and predict the future distributions of both mosquitoes in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change.