Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Progress or Stagnation?

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Abstract

Over the past quarter-century,fertility has declined rapidly in many developing countries. Projections typically assume that this trend will continue until replacement level is reached. Recent evidence suggests, however, that ongoing fertility declines may have slowed or stalled in a number of countries in transition. This study examines the pace of fertility change in developing countries that have multiple Demographic and Health Surveys to determine whether ongoing transitions are decelerating or stalling. The main findings are that in sub-Saharan African countries, the average pace of decline in fertility was lower around 2000 than in the mid-1990s and that more than half the countries in transition in this region have stalled.

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Family planning: the unfinished agenda.

John Cleland, Stan Bernstein, Alex Ezeh … (2006)

Promotion of family planning in countries with high birth rates has the potential to reduce poverty and hunger and avert 32% of all maternal deaths and nearly 10% of childhood deaths. It would also contribute substantially to women's empowerment, achievement of universal primary schooling, and long-term environmental sustainability. In the past 40 years, family-planning programmes have played a major part in raising the prevalence of contraceptive practice from less than 10% to 60% and reducing fertility in developing countries from six to about three births per woman. However, in half the 75 larger low-income and lower-middle income countries (mainly in Africa), contraceptive practice remains low and fertility, population growth, and unmet need for family planning are high. The cross-cutting contribution to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals makes greater investment in family planning in these countries compelling. Despite the size of this unfinished agenda, international funding and promotion of family planning has waned in the past decade. A revitalisation of the agenda is urgently needed. Historically, the USA has taken the lead but other governments or agencies are now needed as champions. Based on the sizeable experience of past decades, the key features of effective programmes are clearly established. Most governments of poor countries already have appropriate population and family-planning policies but are receiving too little international encouragement and funding to implement them with vigour. What is currently missing is political willingness to incorporate family planning into the development arena.

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An economic framework for fertility analysis.

Richard Easterlin (1975)

The standard formulation of the microeconomic theory of fertility, which emphasizes the demand for children and, to a lesser extent, the costs of fertility control, is too limited in its scope for use by most demographers and sociologists. The approach advanced in this paper adds to the usual theory a more explicit and formal treatment of the production of children, including the possibility of shifts in production independent of demand conditions. This more comprehensive framework is compared with the usual approach in the analysis of several empirical problems-non-marital fertility, premodern fertility fluctuations and differentials, and the secular fertility decline-and is shown to be better suited for incorporating the concepts and hypotheses of noneconomists along with those of economists.

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The causes of stalling fertility transitions.

John Bongaarts (2006)

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in midtransition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. In each of these countries fertility was high (more than six births per woman) in the 1950s and declined to fewer than five births per woman in the early or mid-1990s, before stalling. The level of stalling varied from 4.7 births per woman in Kenya to 2.5 births per woman in Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and number of wanted births. The stalling countries did not experience significant increases in unwanted births or in the unmet need for contraception during the late 1990s, and program effort scores improved slightly, except in the Dominican Republic. These findings suggest no major deterioration in contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted births are relatively high, and improvements in access to family planning methods would, therefore, be desirable. No significant link was found between the presence of a stall and trends in socioeconomic development, but at the onset of the stall the level of fertility was low relative to the level of development in all but one of the stalling countries.