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      Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Declines in the United States From 1979 Through 2011 : Evidence for Stagnation in Young Adults, Especially Women

      1 , 1 , 1 , 1 , 1
      Circulation
      Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

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          Abstract

          Background—

          Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have fallen dramatically over the past 4 decades in the Western world. However, recent data from the United States and elsewhere suggest a plateauing of CHD incidence and mortality among young women. We therefore examined recent trends in CHD mortality rates in the United States according to age and sex.

          Methods and Results—

          We analyzed mortality data between 1979 and 2011 for US adults ≥25 years of age. We calculated age-specific CHD mortality rates and compared estimated annual percentage changes during 3 approximate decades of data (1979–1989, 1990–1999, and 2000–2011). We then used Joinpoint regression modeling to assess changes in trends over time on the basis of inflection points of the mortality rates. Adults ≥65 years of age showed consistent mortality declines, which became even steeper after 2000 (women, −5.0%; men, −4.4%). In contrast, young men and women (<55 years of age) initially showed a clear decline in CHD mortality from 1979 until 1989 (estimated annual percentage change, −5.5% in men and −4.6% in women). However, the 2 subsequent decades saw stagnation with minimal improvement. Notably, young women demonstrated no improvements between 1990 and 1999 (estimated annual percentage change, 0.1%) and only −1% estimated annual percentage change since 2000. Joinpoint analyses provided consistent results.

          Conclusions—

          The dramatic decline in CHD mortality since 1979 conceals major heterogeneities. CHD death rates in older groups are now falling steeply. However, young adults have experienced frustratingly small decreases in CHD mortality rates since 1990. The drivers of these major differences in CHD mortality trends by age and sex merit urgent study.

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          Most cited references48

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          Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates

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            Sudden cardiac death in the United States, 1989 to 1998.

            Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a major clinical and public health problem. United States (US) vital statistics mortality data from 1989 to 1998 were analyzed. SCD is defined as deaths occurring out of the hospital or in the emergency room or as "dead on arrival" with an underlying cause of death reported as a cardiac disease (ICD-9 code 390 to 398, 402, or 404 to 429). Death rates were calculated for residents of the US aged >/=35 years and standardized to the 2000 US population. Of 719 456 cardiac deaths among adults aged >/=35 years in 1998, 456 076 (63%) were defined as SCD. Among decedents aged 35 to 44 years, 74% of cardiac deaths were SCD. Of all SCDs in 1998, coronary heart disease (ICD-9 codes 410 to 414) was the underlying cause on 62% of death certificates. Death rates for SCD increased with age and were higher in men than women, although there was no difference at age >/=85 years. The black population had higher death rates for SCD than white, American Indian/Alaska Native, or Asian/Pacific Islander populations. The Hispanic population had lower death rates for SCD than the non-Hispanic population. From 1989 to 1998, SCD, as the proportion of all cardiac deaths, increased 12.4% (56.3% to 63.9%), and age-adjusted SCD rates declined 11.7% in men and 5.8% in women. During the same time, age-specific death rates for SCD increased 21% among women aged 35 to 44 years. SCD remains an important public health problem in the US. The increase in death rates for SCD among younger women warrants additional investigation.
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              Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in the U.S. from 1980 through 2002: concealed leveling of mortality rates.

              The objective of our study was to examine age-specific mortality rates from coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly those among younger adults. Trends for obesity, diabetes, blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome among young adults raise concerns about the mortality rates from CHD in this group. We used mortality data from 1980 to 2002 to calculate age-specific mortality rates from CHD for U.S. adults age > or =35 years. Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate decreased by 52% in men and 49% in women. Among women age 35 to 54 years, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in mortality was -5.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] -5.8 to -4.9) from 1980 until 1989, -1.2% (95% CI -1.6 to -0.8) from 1989 until 2000, and 1.5% (95% CI -3.4 to 6.6) from 2000 until 2002. Among men age 35 to 54 years, the EAPC in mortality was -6.2% (95% CI -6.4 to -5.9) from 1980 until 1989, -2.3% (95% CI -2.6 to -2.1) from 1989 until 2000, and -0.5% (95% CI -3.7 to 2.9) from 2000 until 2002. Among women and men age > or =55 years, the estimated annual percentage decrease in mortality from CHD accelerated in more recent years compared with earlier periods. The mortality rates for CHD among younger adults may serve as a sentinel event. Unfavorable trends in several risk factors for CHD provide a likely explanation for the observed mortality rates.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Circulation
                Circulation
                Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
                0009-7322
                1524-4539
                September 15 2015
                September 15 2015
                : 132
                : 11
                : 997-1002
                Affiliations
                [1 ]From the Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology (K.A.W., V.V.), Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health (V.V.), Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA; Department of Public Health &amp; Policy, Institute of Psychology, Health &amp; Society, University of Liverpool, UK (M.O., S.C.); and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA (E.S.F.).
                Article
                10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.115.015293
                4828724
                26302759
                df32cb0b-6868-4585-b673-46ca2c2fa038
                © 2015
                History

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