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      Factors affecting mortality following emergency admission for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

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          Abstract

          Background

          Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality worldwide. Patients with COPD frequently have systemic comorbidities that often require unscheduled hospitalization for exacerbation and deterioration of physical conditions, and can have a poor prognosis. We verified factors affecting patients’ short-term mortality, using a national inpatient database in Japan.

          Methods

          We retrospectively collected data for COPD patients (age: >40 years) with emergency admission between July 2010 and March 2013, using the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database. We performed multivariate logistic analyses fitted with a generalized estimating equation to assess factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality.

          Results

          A total of 177,207 patients (mean age: 77.5 years; males: 72.9%) were identified. All-cause in-hospital death occurred in 23,614 patients (13.7%). Higher mortality was associated with older age, male sex, lower body mass index, more severe dyspnea, lower level of consciousness, and worse activities of daily life. Higher mortality was also associated with comorbid conditions, including bacterial pneumonia, aspiration pneumonia, interstitial pneumonitis, pulmonary embolism, respiratory failure, lung cancer, heart failure, cerebral infarction, liver cirrhosis, and chronic renal failure.

          Conclusions

          Our study demonstrated that all-cause in-hospital mortality in patients with COPD who required emergency hospitalization was associated with deteriorated general conditions and comorbidities at admission. Physicians should take into account these prognostic factors to choose better treatment options for COPD patients.

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          Most cited references21

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          To GEE or not to GEE: comparing population average and mixed models for estimating the associations between neighborhood risk factors and health.

          Two modeling approaches are commonly used to estimate the associations between neighborhood characteristics and individual-level health outcomes in multilevel studies (subjects within neighborhoods). Random effects models (or mixed models) use maximum likelihood estimation. Population average models typically use a generalized estimating equation (GEE) approach. These methods are used in place of basic regression approaches because the health of residents in the same neighborhood may be correlated, thus violating independence assumptions made by traditional regression procedures. This violation is particularly relevant to estimates of the variability of estimates. Though the literature appears to favor the mixed-model approach, little theoretical guidance has been offered to justify this choice. In this paper, we review the assumptions behind the estimates and inference provided by these 2 approaches. We propose a perspective that treats regression models for what they are in most circumstances: reasonable approximations of some true underlying relationship. We argue in general that mixed models involve unverifiable assumptions on the data-generating distribution, which lead to potentially misleading estimates and biased inference. We conclude that the estimation-equation approach of population average models provides a more useful approximation of the truth.
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            COPD exacerbations .1: Epidemiology.

            The epidemiology of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is reviewed with particular reference to the definition, frequency, time course, natural history and seasonality, and their relationship with decline in lung function, disease severity and mortality. The importance of distinguishing between recurrent and relapsed exacerbations is discussed.
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              Predictors of mortality in hospitalized adults with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

              There is a need to identify clinically meaningful predictors of mortality following hospitalized COPD exacerbation. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature to identify clinically important factors that predict mortality after hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Eligible studies considered adults admitted to hospital with COPD exacerbation. Two authors independently abstracted data. Odds ratios were then calculated by comparing the prevalence of each predictor in survivors versus nonsurvivors. For continuous variables, mean differences were pooled by the inverse of their variance, using a random effects model. There were 37 studies included (189,772 study subjects) with risk of death ranging from 3.6% for studies considering short-term mortality, 31.0% for long-term mortality (up to 2 yr after hospitalization), and 29.0% for studies that considered solely intensive care unit (ICU)-admitted study subjects. Twelve prognostic factors (age, male sex, low body mass index, cardiac failure, chronic renal failure, confusion, long-term oxygen therapy, lower limb edema, Global Initiative for Chronic Lung Disease criteria stage 4, cor pulmonale, acidemia, and elevated plasma troponin level) were significantly associated with increased short-term mortality. Nine prognostic factors (age, low body mass index, cardiac failure, diabetes mellitus, ischemic heart disease, malignancy, FEV1, long-term oxygen therapy, and PaO2 on admission) were significantly associated with long-term mortality. Three factors (age, low Glasgow Coma Scale score, and pH) were significantly associated with increased risk of mortality in ICU-admitted study subjects. Different factors correlate with mortality from COPD exacerbation in the short term, long term, and after ICU admission. These parameters may be useful to develop tools for prediction of outcome in clinical practice.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                w-hasegawa@umin.ac.jp
                YAMAUCHIY-INT@h.u-tokyo.ac.jp
                yasunagah-tky@umin.ac.jp
                sunohara-tky@umin.ac.jp
                jo-taisuke@umin.ac.jp
                ptmatsui-tky@umin.ac.jp
                kfushimi.hci@tmd.ac.jp
                tkmkztk-tky@umin.ac.jp
                takahide-tky@umin.ac.jp
                Journal
                BMC Pulm Med
                BMC Pulm Med
                BMC Pulmonary Medicine
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2466
                24 September 2014
                24 September 2014
                2014
                : 14
                : 1
                : 151
                Affiliations
                [ ]Department of Respiratory Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8655 Tokyo, Japan
                [ ]Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Health Economics, School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8655 Tokyo, Japan
                [ ]Division for Health Service Promotion, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 113-8655 Tokyo, Japan
                [ ]Department of Health Policy and Informatics, Tokyo Medical and Dental University Graduate School of Medicine, 1-5-45, Yushima, Bunkyo-ku, 113-0034 Tokyo, Japan
                Article
                592
                10.1186/1471-2466-14-151
                4192826
                25253449
                df7f7093-1c03-4737-9f44-fcfd2dd722f6
                © Hasegawa et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. 2014

                This article is published under license to BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 27 May 2014
                : 22 September 2014
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2014

                Respiratory medicine
                chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,all-cause in-hospital mortality,activities of daily life,emergency hospital admission

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