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      E-Cigarette Surveillance With Social Media Data: Social Bots, Emerging Topics, and Trends

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          Abstract

          Background

          As e-cigarette use rapidly increases in popularity, data from online social systems (Twitter, Instagram, Google Web Search) can be used to capture and describe the social and environmental context in which individuals use, perceive, and are marketed this tobacco product. Social media data may serve as a massive focus group where people organically discuss e-cigarettes unprimed by a researcher, without instrument bias, captured in near real time and at low costs.

          Objective

          This study documents e-cigarette–related discussions on Twitter, describing themes of conversations and locations where Twitter users often discuss e-cigarettes, to identify priority areas for e-cigarette education campaigns. Additionally, this study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between social bots and human users when attempting to understand public health–related behaviors and attitudes.

          Methods

          E-cigarette–related posts on Twitter (N=6,185,153) were collected from December 24, 2016, to April 21, 2017. Techniques drawn from network science were used to determine discussions of e-cigarettes by describing which hashtags co-occur (concept clusters) in a Twitter network. Posts and metadata were used to describe where geographically e-cigarette–related discussions in the United States occurred. Machine learning models were used to distinguish between Twitter posts reflecting attitudes and behaviors of genuine human users from those of social bots. Odds ratios were computed from 2x2 contingency tables to detect if hashtags varied by source (social bot vs human user) using the Fisher exact test to determine statistical significance.

          Results

          Clusters found in the corpus of hashtags from human users included behaviors (eg, #vaping), vaping identity (eg, #vapelife), and vaping community (eg, #vapenation). Additional clusters included products (eg, #eliquids), dual tobacco use (eg, #hookah), and polysubstance use (eg, #marijuana). Clusters found in the corpus of hashtags from social bots included health (eg, #health), smoking cessation (eg, #quitsmoking), and new products (eg, #ismog). Social bots were significantly more likely to post hashtags that referenced smoking cessation and new products compared to human users. The volume of tweets was highest in the Mid-Atlantic (eg, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York), followed by the West Coast and Southwest (eg, California, Arizona and Nevada).

          Conclusions

          Social media data may be used to complement and extend the surveillance of health behaviors including tobacco product use. Public health researchers could harness these data and methods to identify new products or devices. Furthermore, findings from this study demonstrate the importance of distinguishing between Twitter posts from social bots and humans when attempting to understand attitudes and behaviors. Social bots may be used to perpetuate the idea that e-cigarettes are helpful in cessation and to promote new products as they enter the marketplace.

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          Most cited references28

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          Echo Chamber or Public Sphere? Predicting Political Orientation and Measuring Political Homophily in Twitter Using Big Data

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            Social bots distort the 2016 U.S. Presidential election online discussion

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              Tobacco Use Among Middle and High School Students — United States, 2011–2014

              Tobacco use and addiction most often begin during youth and young adulthood (1,2). Youth use of tobacco in any form is unsafe (1). To determine the prevalence and trends of current (past 30-day) use of nine tobacco products (cigarettes, cigars, smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes, hookahs, tobacco pipes, snus, dissolvable tobacco, and bidis) among U.S. middle (grades 6–8) and high school (grades 9–12) students, CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) analyzed data from the 2011–2014 National Youth Tobacco Surveys (NYTS). In 2014, e-cigarettes were the most commonly used tobacco product among middle (3.9%) and high (13.4%) school students. Between 2011 and 2014, statistically significant increases were observed among these students for current use of both e-cigarettes and hookahs (p<0.05), while decreases were observed for current use of more traditional products, such as cigarettes and cigars, resulting in no change in overall tobacco use. Consequently, 4.6 million middle and high school students continue to be exposed to harmful tobacco product constituents, including nicotine. Nicotine exposure during adolescence, a critical window for brain development, might have lasting adverse consequences for brain development (1), causes addiction (3), and might lead to sustained tobacco use. For this reason, comprehensive and sustained strategies are needed to prevent and reduce the use of all tobacco products among youths in the United States. NYTS is a cross-sectional, school-based, self-administered, pencil-and-paper questionnaire administered to U.S. middle and high school students. Information is collected on tobacco control outcome indicators to monitor the impact of comprehensive tobacco control policies and strategies (4) and inform FDA’s regulatory actions (5). A three-stage cluster sampling procedure was used to generate a nationally representative sample of U.S. students who attend public and private schools in grades 6–12. This report includes data from 4 years of NYTS (2011–2014), using an updated definition of current tobacco use that excludes kreteks (sometimes referred to as clove cigarettes).* Of 258 schools selected for the 2014 NYTS, 207 (80.2%) participated, with a sample of 22,007 (91.4%) among 24,084 eligible students; the overall response rate was 73.3%. Sample sizes and overall response rates for 2011, 2012, and 2013 were 18,866 (72.7%), 24,658 (73.6%), and 18,406 (67.8%), respectively. Participants were asked about current (past 30-day) use of cigarettes, cigars (defined as cigars, cigarillos, or little cigars), smokeless tobacco (defined as chewing tobacco, snuff, or dip), e-cigarettes,† hookahs,§ tobacco pipes (pipes),¶ snus, dissolvable tobacco (dissolvables), and bidis. Current use for each product was defined as using a product on ≥1 day during the past 30 days. Tobacco use was categorized as “any tobacco product use,” defined as use of one or more tobacco products and “≥2 tobacco product use,” defined as use of two or more tobacco products. Data were weighted to account for the complex survey design and adjusted for nonresponse; national prevalence estimates with 95% confidence intervals and population estimates rounded down to the nearest 10,000 were computed. Estimates for current use in 2014 are presented for any tobacco use, use of ≥2 tobacco products, and use of each tobacco product, by selected demographics for each school level (high and middle). Orthogonal polynomials were used with logistic regression analysis to examine trends from 2011 to 2014 in any tobacco use, use of ≥2 tobacco products, and use of each tobacco product by school level, controlling for grade, race/ethnicity, and sex and simultaneously assessing for linear and nonlinear trends.** A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. SAS-Callable SUDAAN was used for analysis. In 2014, a total of 24.6% of high school students reported current use of a tobacco product, including 12.7% who reported current use of ≥2 tobacco products. Among all high school students, e-cigarettes (13.4%) were the most common tobacco products used, followed by hookahs (9.4%), cigarettes (9.2%), cigars (8.2%), smokeless tobacco (5.5%), snus (1.9%), pipes (1.5%), bidis (0.9%), and dissolvables (0.6%) (Table). Among high school non-Hispanic whites, Hispanics,†† and persons of non-Hispanic other races, e-cigarettes were the most used product, whereas among non-Hispanic blacks, cigars were used most commonly. Current use of any tobacco and ≥2 tobacco products among middle school students was 7.7% and 3.1%, respectively. E-cigarettes (3.9%) were the tobacco product used most commonly by middle school students, followed by hookahs (2.5%), cigarettes (2.5%), cigars (1.9%), smokeless tobacco (1.6%), pipes (0.6%), bidis (0.5%), snus (0.5%), and dissolvables (0.3%). From 2011 to 2014, statistically significant nonlinear increases were observed among high school students for current e-cigarette (1.5% to 13.4%) and hookah (4.1% to 9.4%) use (Figure 1). Statistically significant linear decreases were observed for current cigarette (15.8% to 9.2%) and snus (2.9% to 1.9%) use. Statistically significant nonlinear decreases were observed for current cigar (11.6% to 8.2%), pipe (4.0% to 1.5%), and bidi (2.0% to 0.9%) use. Current use of any tobacco product (24.2% to 24.6%) and use of ≥2 tobacco products (12.5% to 12.7%) did not change significantly from 2011 to 2014. Among middle school students, similar trends were observed during 2011–2014 (Figure 2). A statistically significant linear decrease was observed only in middle school students currently using ≥2 tobacco products (3.8% to 3.1%). In 2014, an estimated 4.6 million middle and high school students currently used any tobacco product, of which an estimated 2.2 million students currently used ≥2 tobacco products. Of current tobacco users, 2.4 million used e-cigarettes and 1.6 million used hookahs. The largest increase in current e-cigarette use occurred from 2013 to 2014. Current e-cigarette use tripled from 2013 (660,000 [4.5%]) to 2014 (2 million [13.4%]) among high school students (Figure 1); and among middle school students, prevalence increased by a similar magnitude, from 1.1% (120,000) to 3.9% (450,000) (Figure 2). From 2013 to 2014, substantial increases also were observed for current hookah use, with prevalence almost doubling for high school students from 5.2% (770,000) to 9.4% (1.3 million) and for middle school students from 1.1% (120,000) to 2.5% (280,000) over this period. Discussion From 2011 to 2014, substantial increases were observed in current e-cigarette and hookah use among middle and high school students, resulting in an overall estimated total of 2.4 million e-cigarette youth users and an estimated 1.6 million hookah youth users in 2014. Statistically significant decreases occurred in the use of cigarettes, cigars, tobacco pipes, bidis, and snus. The increases in current use of e-cigarettes and hookahs offset the decreases in current use of other tobacco products, resulting in no change in overall current tobacco use among middle and high school students. In 2014, one in four high school students and one in 13 middle school students used one or more tobacco products in the last 30 days. In 2014, for the first time in NYTS, current e-cigarette use surpassed current use of every other tobacco product, including cigarettes. These findings are subject to at least three limitations. First, data were collected only from youths who attended either public or private schools and might not be generalizable to all middle and high school-aged youth. Second, current tobacco use was estimated by including students who reported using at least one of the nine tobacco products asked in the survey but might have had missing responses to any of the other eight tobacco products; missing responses were considered as nonuse, which might have resulted in underestimated results. Finally, changes between 2013 and 2014 in the wording and placement of questions about the use of e-cigarettes, hookahs, and tobacco pipes might have had an impact on reported use of these products. Despite these limitations, overall prevalence estimates are similar to the findings of other nationally representative youth surveys (6,7). Tobacco prevention and control strategies, including increasing tobacco product prices, adopting comprehensive smoke-free laws, and implementation of national public education media campaigns, might have influenced the reduction of cigarette smoking in youths (2). However, the lack of decline in overall tobacco use from 2011 to 2014 is concerning and indicates that an estimated 4.6 million youths continue to be exposed to harmful constituents, including nicotine, present in tobacco products (Table). Youth use of tobacco in any form, whether it be combustible, noncombustible, or electronic, is unsafe (1); regardless of mode of delivery, nicotine exposure during adolescence, a critical time for brain development, might have lasting adverse consequences for brain development (1), causes addiction (3), and might lead to sustained use of tobacco products. Rapid changes in use of traditional and emerging tobacco products among youths underscore the importance of enhanced surveillance of all tobacco use. What is already known on this topic? Tobacco use and addiction most often begins during youth and young adulthood. Youth use of tobacco in any form is unsafe and might have lasting adverse consequences on their developing brains. What is added by this report? In 2014, an estimated 4.6 million youths, including 3.7 million high school and 900,000 middle school students, reported current use (use on one or more days in the past 30 days) of any tobacco product. From 2011 to 2014, statistically significant increases were observed in e-cigarette and hookah use among high school and middle school students, while statistically significant decreases were observed in the use of cigarettes, cigars, tobacco pipes, bidis, and snus. The increases in current use of e-cigarettes and hookahs offset the decreases in other tobacco products, resulting in no change in overall current tobacco use among youths. What are the implications for public health practice? In 2014, nearly one in four high school students and one in 13 middle school students reported current use of any tobacco product. Because the use of emerging tobacco products (e-cigarettes and hookahs) is on the rise among middle and high school students, it is critical that comprehensive tobacco control and prevention strategies for youths should address all tobacco products and not just cigarettes. Sustained efforts to implement proven tobacco control policies and strategies are necessary to prevent youth use of all tobacco products. In April 2014, FDA issued a proposed rule to deem all products made or derived from tobacco subject to FDA jurisdiction, and the agency is reviewing public comments on the proposed rule (8). Regulation of the manufacturing, distribution, and marketing of tobacco products coupled with full implementation of comprehensive tobacco control and prevention strategies at CDC-recommended funding levels could reduce youth tobacco use and initiation (1,2,9). Because use of emerging tobacco products (e-cigarettes and hookahs) is increasing among middle and high school students, it is critical that comprehensive tobacco control and prevention strategies for youths should address all tobacco products and not just cigarettes.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                JMIR Public Health Surveill
                JMIR Public Health Surveill
                JPH
                JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
                JMIR Publications (Toronto, Canada )
                2369-2960
                Oct-Dec 2017
                20 December 2017
                : 3
                : 4
                : e98
                Affiliations
                [1] 1 Keck School of Medicine University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA United States
                [2] 2 Information Sciences Institute University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA United States
                [3] 3 Department of Computer Science University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA United States
                Author notes
                Corresponding Author: Jon-Patrick Allem allem@ 123456usc.edu
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9135-8689
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1942-2831
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3193-8707
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5894-1802
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9064-6603
                Article
                v3i4e98
                10.2196/publichealth.8641
                5752967
                29263018
                e0256cdb-7d5c-48e6-a4e1-b6b73a28135c
                ©Jon-Patrick Allem, Emilio Ferrara, Sree Priyanka Uppu, Tess Boley Cruz, Jennifer B Unger. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 20.12.2017.

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://publichealth.jmir.org, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

                History
                : 3 August 2017
                : 14 September 2017
                : 2 November 2017
                : 19 November 2017
                Categories
                Original Paper
                Original Paper

                electronic cigarettes,vaping,twitter,social media,social bots,electronic nicotine delivery system,infoveillance

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