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      Validation of Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk score to predict a prolonged intensive care unit stay for adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass

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          Abstract

          Background

          A prolonged stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) increases the cost of care as well as morbidity and mortality. Several predictive models aim at identifying patients at risk of prolonged ICU stay after cardiac surgery with CPB, but almost all of them involve a preoperative assessment for proper resource management, while one – the Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk (OHIR) score – focuses on intra-operative manipulatable risk factors for improving anesthetic care and patient outcome.

          Objective

          We aimed to revalidate the OHIR score in a different context.

          Materials and methods

          The ability of the OHIR score to predict a prolonged ICU stay was assessed in 123 adults undergoing cardiac surgery (both coronary bypass graft and valvular surgery) with CPB at two tertiary university hospitals between January 2013 and December 2014. The criteria for a prolonged ICU stay matched a previous study (ie, a stay longer than the median).

          Results

          The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the OHIR score to predict a prolonged ICU stay was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90–1.00). The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and accuracy of an OHIR score of ≥3 to discriminate a prolonged ICU stay was 93.10%, 98.46%, 98.18%, and 95.9%.

          Conclusion

          The OHIR score is highly predictive of a prolonged ICU stay among intraopera-tive patients undergoing cardiac surgery with CPB. The OHIR comprises of six risk factors, five of which are manipulatable intraoperatively. The OHIR can be used to identify patients at risk as well as to improve the outcome of those patients.

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          Most cited references 10

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          European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE).

          To construct a scoring system for the prediction of early mortality in cardiac surgical patients in Europe on the basis of objective risk factors. The EuroSCORE database was divided into developmental and validation subsets. In the former, risk factors deemed to be objective, credible, obtainable and difficult to falsify were weighted on the basis of regression analysis. An additive score of predicted mortality was constructed. Its calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed in the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined to distinguish low, moderate and high risk groups. The developmental dataset had 13,302 patients, calibration by Hosmer Lemeshow Chi square was (8) = 8.26 (P 200 micromol/l (2), active endocarditis (3) and critical preoperative state (3). Cardiac factors were unstable angina on intravenous nitrates (2), reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (30-50%: 1, 60 mmHg (2). Operation-related factors were emergency (2), other than isolated coronary surgery (2), thoracic aorta surgery (3) and surgery for postinfarct septal rupture (4). The scoring system was then applied to three risk groups. The low risk group (EuroSCORE 1-2) had 4529 patients with 36 deaths (0.8%), 95% confidence limits for observed mortality (0.56-1.10) and for expected mortality (1.27-1.29). The medium risk group (EuroSCORE 3-5) had 5977 patients with 182 deaths (3%), observed mortality (2.62-3.51), predicted (2.90-2.94). The high risk group (EuroSCORE 6 plus) had 4293 patients with 480 deaths (11.2%) observed mortality (10.25-12.16), predicted (10.93-11.54). Overall, there were 698 deaths in 14,799 patients (4.7%), observed mortality (4.37-5.06), predicted (4.72-4.95). EuroSCORE is a simple, objective and up-to-date system for assessing heart surgery, soundly based on one of the largest, most complete and accurate databases in European cardiac surgical history. We recommend its widespread use.
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            Risk factors and outcome in European cardiac surgery: analysis of the EuroSCORE multinational database of 19030 patients.

            To assess risk factors for mortality in cardiac surgical adult patients as part of a study to develop a European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE). From September to November 1995, information on risk factors and mortality was collected for 19030 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery under cardiopulmonary bypass in 128 surgical centres in eight European states. Data were collected for 68 preoperative and 29 operative risk factors proven or believed to influence hospital mortality. The relationship between risk factors and outcome was assessed by univariate and logistic regression analysis. Mean age (+/- standard deviation) was 62.5+/-10.7 (range 17-94 years) and 28% were female. Mean body mass index was 26.3+/-3.9. The incidence of common risk factors was as follows: hypertension 43.6%, diabetes 16.7%, extracardiac arteriopathy 2.9%, chronic renal failure 3.5%, chronic pulmonary disease 3.9%, previous cardiac surgery 7.3% and impaired left ventricular function 31.4%. Isolated coronary surgery accounted for 63.6% of all procedures, and 29.8% of patients had valve operations. Overall hospital mortality was 4.8%. Coronary surgery mortality was 3.4% In the absence of any identifiable risk factors, mortality was 0.4% for coronary surgery, 1% for mitral valve surgery, 1.1% for aortic valve surgery and 0% for atrial septal defect repair. The following risk factors were associated with increased mortality: age (P = 0.001), female gender (P = 0.001), serum creatinine (P = 0.001), extracardiac arteriopathy (P = 0.001), chronic airway disease (P = 0.006), severe neurological dysfunction (P = 0.001), previous cardiac surgery (P = 0.001), recent myocardial infarction (P = 0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.001), chronic congestive cardiac failure (P = 0.001), pulmonary hypertension (P = 0.001), active endocarditis (P = 0.001), unstable angina (P = 0.001), procedure urgency (P = 0.001), critical preoperative condition (P = 0.001) ventricular septal rupture (P = 0.002), noncoronary surgery (P = 0.001), thoracic aortic surgery (P = 0.001). A number of risk factors contribute to cardiac surgical mortality in Europe. This information can be used to develop a risk stratification system for the prediction of hospital mortality and the assessment of quality of care.
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              Prolonged intensive care unit stay in cardiac surgery: risk factors and long-term-survival.

              Risk factors have been found for prolonged intensive care unit (ICU) stay in cardiac surgery patients in only a few studies; conflicting results have been described. The focus of this study was twofold: first, to evaluate preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative risk factors for ICU stay greater than 3 days in a cardiac surgery patient population; second, to evaluate long-term survival in cardiac surgery patients with prolonged ICU stay. Records from 2,683 cardiac surgery patients were retrospectively evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analyses for risk factors were performed for an ICU stay greater than 3 days. Thereafter, 2,563 patients were enrolled in a follow-up study for an observational time of 3 years after surgery. Mortality was dependent on renal, respiratory, and heart failure, as well as age, elevated APACHE II scores, and reexploration. Long-term survival analyses demonstrated a significantly lower survival in patients with longer ICU stay. However, the 6-month to 3-year long-term survival was comparable with survival in patients without prolonged ICU stay. Because of the increasing acuity of patients needing cardiac surgery, it is important to identify those at risk for a prolonged ICU course. It is therefore of paramount interest to implement measures throughout their entire hospital stay that would maximize organ function to improve survival and resource utilization.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ther Clin Risk Manag
                Ther Clin Risk Manag
                Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management
                Therapeutics and Clinical Risk Management
                Dove Medical Press
                1176-6336
                1178-203X
                2018
                03 January 2018
                : 14
                : 53-57
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Anesthesiology
                [2 ]Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen, Thailand
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Thepakorn Sathitkarnmanee, Department of Anesthesiology, Faculty of Medicine, Khon Kaen University, 123 Mitrapap Road, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand, Tel +66 8 1954 7622, Email thepakorns@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                tcrm-14-053
                10.2147/TCRM.S150301
                5757207
                © 2018 Tribuddharat et al. This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited

                The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

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                Original Research

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