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      Adaptive nowcasting of influenza outbreaks using  Google searches

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          Abstract

          Seasonal influenza outbreaks and pandemics of new strains of the influenza virus affect humans around the globe. However, traditional systems for measuring the spread of flu infections deliver results with one or two weeks delay. Recent research suggests that data on queries made to the search engine Google can be used to address this problem, providing real-time estimates of levels of influenza-like illness in a population. Others have however argued that equally good estimates of current flu levels can be forecast using historic flu measurements. Here, we build dynamic ‘nowcasting’ models; in other words, forecasting models that estimate current levels of influenza, before the release of official data one week later. We find that when using Google Flu Trends data in combination with historic flu levels, the mean absolute error (MAE) of in-sample ‘nowcasts’ can be significantly reduced by 14.4%, compared with a baseline model that uses historic data on flu levels only. We further demonstrate that the MAE of out-of-sample nowcasts can also be significantly reduced by between 16.0% and 52.7%, depending on the length of the sliding training interval. We conclude that, using adaptive models, Google Flu Trends data can indeed be used to improve real-time influenza monitoring, even when official reports of flu infections are available with only one week's delay.

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          Most cited references23

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          Using internet searches for influenza surveillance.

          The Internet is an important source of health information. Thus, the frequency of Internet searches may provide information regarding infectious disease activity. As an example, we examined the relationship between searches for influenza and actual influenza occurrence. Using search queries from the Yahoo! search engine ( http://search.yahoo.com ) from March 2004 through May 2008, we counted daily unique queries originating in the United States that contained influenza-related search terms. Counts were divided by the total number of searches, and the resulting daily fraction of searches was averaged over the week. We estimated linear models, using searches with 1-10-week lead times as explanatory variables to predict the percentage of cultures positive for influenza and deaths attributable to pneumonia and influenza in the United States. With use of the frequency of searches, our models predicted an increase in cultures positive for influenza 1-3 weeks in advance of when they occurred (P < .001), and similar models predicted an increase in mortality attributable to pneumonia and influenza up to 5 weeks in advance (P < .001). Search-term surveillance may provide an additional tool for disease surveillance.
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            Predicting the behavior of techno-social systems.

            We live in an increasingly interconnected world of techno-social systems, in which infrastructures composed of different technological layers are interoperating within the social component that drives their use and development. Examples are provided by the Internet, the World Wide Web, WiFi communication technologies, and transportation and mobility infrastructures. The multiscale nature and complexity of these networks are crucial features in understanding and managing the networks. The accessibility of new data and the advances in the theory and modeling of complex networks are providing an integrated framework that brings us closer to achieving true predictive power of the behavior of techno-social systems.
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              Quantifying Trading Behavior in Financial Markets Using Google Trends

              Crises in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Detailed market data on trading decisions reflect some of the complex human behavior that has led to these crises. We suggest that massive new data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. By analyzing changes in Google query volumes for search terms related to finance, we find patterns that may be interpreted as “early warning signs” of stock market moves. Our results illustrate the potential that combining extensive behavioral data sets offers for a better understanding of collective human behavior.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                R Soc Open Sci
                R Soc Open Sci
                RSOS
                royopensci
                Royal Society Open Science
                The Royal Society Publishing
                2054-5703
                October 2014
                29 October 2014
                29 October 2014
                : 1
                : 2
                : 140095
                Affiliations
                Warwick Business School, University of Warwick , Scarman Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK
                Author notes
                Author for correspondence: Tobias Preis e-mail: tobias.preis@ 123456wbs.ac.uk
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally to this study.

                Article
                rsos140095
                10.1098/rsos.140095
                4448892
                26064532
                e07395cb-7d55-4638-b3e5-1427c0098e0d
                © 2014 The Authors.

                Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 10 June 2014
                : 10 October 2014
                Categories
                1004
                1009
                120
                69
                194
                Research Articles
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                October, 2014

                data science,computational social science,complex systems

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