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      Numerical Simulation and Risk Analysis of Coastal Inundation in Land Reclamation Areas: A Case Study of the Pearl River Estuary

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          Abstract

          Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018. A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation windpressure model was used to drive the coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model. On the basis of the model results, a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was conducted. The results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation, particularly in areas where narrow waterways, bays, and peninsulas are newly formed. Combining the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions, the 10-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in China. The risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m. A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          JOUC
          Journal of Ocean University of China
          Science Press and Springer (China )
          1672-5182
          15 November 2020
          01 December 2020
          : 19
          : 6
          : 1221-1234
          Affiliations
          1Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
          2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
          3Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, China
          4Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
          Author notes
          *Corresponding author: HOU Yijun, E-mail: yjhou@ 123456qdio.ac.cn
          Article
          s11802-020-4426-0
          10.1007/s11802-020-4426-0
          Copyright © Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2020.

          The copyright to this article, including any graphic elements therein (e.g. illustrations, charts, moving images), is hereby assigned for good and valuable consideration to the editorial office of Journal of Ocean University of China, Science Press and Springer effective if and when the article is accepted for publication and to the extent assignable if assignability is restricted for by applicable law or regulations (e.g. for U.S. government or crown employees).

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          Self URI (journal-page): https://www.springer.com/journal/11802

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