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      Risk of fraud classification

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          Abstract

          In this article, we define consumers’ profiles of electricity who commit fraud. We also compare these profiles with users’ profiles not classified as fraudsters in order to determine which of these clients should receive an inspection. We present a statistically consistent method to classify clients/users as fraudsters or not, according to the profiles of previously identified fraudsters. We show that it is possible to use several characteristics to inspect the classification of fraud; those aspects are represented by the coding performed in the observed series of clients/users. In this way, several encodings can be used, and the client risk can be constructed to integrate complementary aspects. We show that the classification method has success rates that exceed 77%, which allows us to infer confidence in the methodology.

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          Consistent Estimation of Partition Markov Models

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            A BIC-based consistent metric between Markovian processes

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              Classification of autochthonous dengue virus type 1 strains circulating in Japan in 2014

              In this paper, we classify by representativeness the elements of a set of complete genomic sequences of Dengue Virus Type 1 (DENV-1), corresponding to the outbreak in Japan during 2014. The set is coming from four regions: Chiba, Hyogo, Shizuoka and Tokyo. We consider this set as composed of independent samples coming from Markovian processes of finite order and finite alphabet. Under the assumption of the existence of a law that prevails in at least 50% of the samples of the set, we identify the sequences governed by the predominant law (see [ 1 , 2 ]). The rule of classification is based on a local metric between samples, which tends to zero when we compare sequences of identical law and tends to infinity when comparing sequences with different laws. We found that the order of representativeness, from highest to lowest and according to the origin of the sequences is: Tokyo, Chiba, Hyogo, and Shizuoka. When comparing the Japanese sequences with their contemporaries from Asia, we find that the less representative sequence (from Shizuoka) is positioned in groups considerably far away from that which includes the sequences from the other regions in Japan, this offers evidence to suppose that the outbreak in Japan could be produced by more than one type of DENV-1.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                fopen
                https://www.4open-sciences.org
                4open
                4open
                EDP Sciences
                2557-0250
                21 August 2020
                21 August 2020
                2020
                : 3
                : ( publisher-idID: fopen/2020/01 )
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Statistics, University of Campinas, , Sergio Buarque de Holanda, 651, CEP: 13083-859, Campinas, SP, Brazil,
                [2 ] CPFL, Rod. Eng. Miguel Noel Nascentes Burnier, , 1755 – Chácara Primavera, CEP: 13088-900, Campinas, SP, Brazil,
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author: thainass@ 123456outlook.com
                Article
                fopen200010
                10.1051/fopen/2020010
                © J.E. García et al., Published by EDP Sciences, 2020

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Page count
                Figures: 1, Tables: 17, Equations: 281, References: 6, Pages: 11
                Product
                Self URI (journal page): https://www.4open-sciences.org/
                Categories
                Research Article
                Mathematics - Applied Mathematics
                Custom metadata
                4open 2020, 3, 9
                2020
                2020
                2020
                yes

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