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      Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming

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      Journal: Journal of Climate
      Publisher: American Meteorological Society

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          Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle.

          Myles Allen, William J. Ingram (2002)
          What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.
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            Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation

            Gabriel A Vecchi, Brian J Soden (2007)
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              Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing.

              Gabriel A Vecchi, Brian J Soden, Andrew Wittenberg … (2006)
              Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Journal of Climate
                Abbreviated Title: J. Climate
                Publisher: American Meteorological Society
                ISSN (Print): 0894-8755
                ISSN (Electronic): 1520-0442
                Publication date Created: April 2009
                Publication date (Print): April 2009
                Volume: 22
                Issue: 8
                Pages: 1982-2005
                Article
                DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2471.1
                SO-VID: e29814b2-e64d-410c-a480-87c36d7f2e5f
                Copyright © © 2009
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