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      Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle

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      Nature
      Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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          Abstract

          What can we say about changes in the hydrologic cycle on 50-year timescales when we cannot predict rainfall next week? Eventually, perhaps, a great deal: the overall climate response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may prove much simpler and more predictable than the chaos of short-term weather. Quantifying the diversity of possible responses is essential for any objective, probability-based climate forecast, and this task will require a new generation of climate modelling experiments, systematically exploring the range of model behaviour that is consistent with observations. It will be substantially harder to quantify the range of possible changes in the hydrologic cycle than in global-mean temperature, both because the observations are less complete and because the physical constraints are weaker.

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          Most cited references12

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          Climate Trend Atlas of Europe Based on Observations 1891–1990

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            Subtropical water vapor as a mediator of rapid global climate change

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              Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nature
                Nature
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                0028-0836
                1476-4687
                September 12 2002
                September 12 2002
                : 419
                : 6903
                : 228-232
                Article
                10.1038/nature01092
                12226677
                e329e324-db63-4fea-bc25-b11f4ed52392
                © 2002

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

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