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      Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations

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          Abstract

          Overconfidence is sometimes assumed to be a human universal, but there remains a dearth of data systematically measuring overconfidence across populations and contexts. Moreover, cross-cultural experiments often fail to distinguish between placement and precision and worse still, often compare population-mean placement estimates rather than individual performance subtracted from placement. Here we introduce a procedure for concurrently capturing both placement and precision at an individual level based on individual performance: The Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure. We conducted experiments using the EGO procedure, manipulating domain, task knowledge, and incentives across four populations—Japanese, Hong Kong Chinese, Euro Canadians, and East Asian Canadians. We find that previous measures of population-level overconfidence may have been misleading; rather than universal, overconfidence is highly context dependent. Our results reveal cross-cultural differences in sensitivity to incentives and differences in overconfidence strategies, with underconfidence, accuracy, and overconfidence. Comparing sexes, we find inconsistent results for overplacement, but that males are consistently more confident in their placement. These findings have implications for our understanding of the adaptive value of overconfidence and its role in explaining population-level and individual-level differences in economic and psychological behavior.

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          Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

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            CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment

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              Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments.

              People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: ResourcesRole: SoftwareRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: VisualizationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: Project administrationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: ResourcesRole: SupervisionRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: Funding acquisitionRole: InvestigationRole: MethodologyRole: SupervisionRole: ValidationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                30 August 2018
                2018
                : 13
                : 8
                : e0202288
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, United Kingdom
                [2 ] Department of Human Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States of America
                [3 ] Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
                [4 ] School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom
                [5 ] School of Psychology and Speech Pathology, Curtin University, Perth, Australia
                [6 ] Department of Social Psychology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
                [7 ] Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
                University of Wuerzburg, GERMANY
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7079-5166
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8558-8568
                Article
                PONE-D-18-03897
                10.1371/journal.pone.0202288
                6116975
                30161140
                e37827dc-f725-45a1-9478-ff8136a5afbe
                © 2018 Muthukrishna et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 5 February 2018
                : 31 July 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 10, Tables: 8, Pages: 30
                Funding
                The authors received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                Asia
                Hong Kong
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Europe
                People and Places
                Population Groupings
                Ethnicities
                Chinese People
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Anatomy
                Head
                Eyes
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Anatomy
                Head
                Eyes
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Anatomy
                Ocular System
                Eyes
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Anatomy
                Ocular System
                Eyes
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Mathematical and Statistical Techniques
                Statistical Methods
                Meta-Analysis
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Statistics (Mathematics)
                Statistical Methods
                Meta-Analysis
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Culture
                Cross-Cultural Studies
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Behavior
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Behavior
                Motivation
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Neuroscience
                Cognitive Science
                Cognitive Psychology
                Motivation
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Psychology
                Cognitive Psychology
                Motivation
                Social Sciences
                Psychology
                Cognitive Psychology
                Motivation
                Custom metadata
                Our data has been made available at: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.6934058.v2.

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