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      Predictors of Death and Other Cardiac Events within 2 Years after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting


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          Results: In 1,841 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) we evaluated risk indicators for death and other cardiac events during 2 years of follow-up. Independent predictors of death were: a history of congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus and renal dysfunction prior to CABG. Independent predictors of death, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), CABG or percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) were: a small body surface area, a history of congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus and smoking prior to CABG. Independent predictors of death, AMI, CABG, PTCA or rehospitalization for a cardiac reason were: angina functional class, previous AMI, a history of congestive heart failure and renal dysfunction prior to CABG. Conclusion: When using various definitions of a cardiac event after CABG, various risk indicators for death or such an event can be found. Our data suggest that anamnestic information prior to CABG indicating a depressed myocardial function or severe myocardial ischemia are more important predictors of outcome than the information gained from cardioangiography.

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          Stratification of morbidity and mortality outcome by preoperative risk factors in coronary artery bypass patients. A clinical severity score.

          To relate morbidity and mortality risk to preoperative severity of illness in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Retrospective analysis of 5051 patients using univariate and logistic regression to identify risk factors associated with perioperative morbidity and mortality. Prospective application of models to a subsequent 2-year validation cohort (n = 4069). Cleveland Clinic Foundation. All adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery between July 1, 1986, and June 30, 1988 (reference group), and July 1, 1988, and June 30, 1990 (validation group). Mortality and morbidity (myocardial infarction and use of intra-aortic balloon pump, mechanical ventilation for 3 or more days, neurological deficit, oliguric or anuric renal failure, or serious infection). Emergency procedure, preoperative serum creatinine levels of greater than 168 mumol/L, severe left ventricular dysfunction, preoperative hematocrit of 0.34, increasing age, chronic pulmonary disease, prior vascular surgery, reoperation, and mitral valve insufficiency were found to be predictive of mortality. In addition to these factors, diabetes mellitus, body weight of 65 kg or less [corrected], aortic stenosis, and cerebrovascular disease were predictive of morbidity. Logistic regression equations were developed, and a simple additive score for clinical use was designed by allocating each of these risk-factor values of 1 to 6 points. Both methods predict mortality. Increased morbidity was demonstrated with increases in score. The logistic or clinical models developed are superior to the currently available methods for comparing mortality outcome and provide previously unavailable information on morbidity based on preoperative status. The clinical scoring system is useful for preoperative estimates of morbidity and mortality risks.

            Author and article information

            S. Karger AG
            October 1998
            28 October 1998
            : 90
            : 2
            : 110-114
            Division of Cardiology, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden
            6828 Cardiology 1998;90:110–114
            © 1998 S. Karger AG, Basel

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            Page count
            Tables: 5, References: 17, Pages: 5
            Cardiac/Thoracic Surgery


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