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      Local scale processes drive long‐term change in biodiversity of sandy beach ecosystems

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          Abstract

          Evaluating impacts to biodiversity requires ecologically informed comparisons over sufficient time spans. The vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to anthropogenic and climate change‐related impacts makes them potentially valuable indicators of biodiversity change. To evaluate multidecadal change in biodiversity, we compared results from intertidal surveys of 13 sandy beaches conducted in the 1970s and 2009–11 along 500 km of coast (California, USA). Using a novel extrapolation approach to adjust species richness for sampling effort allowed us to address data gaps and has promise for application to other data‐limited biodiversity comparisons. Long‐term changes in species richness varied in direction and magnitude among beaches and with human impacts but showed no regional patterns. Observed long‐term changes in richness differed markedly among functional groups of intertidal invertebrates. At the majority (77%) of beaches, changes in richness were most evident for wrack‐associated invertebrates suggesting they have disproportionate vulnerability to impacts. Reduced diversity of this group was consistent with long‐term habitat loss from erosion and sea level rise at one beach. Wrack‐associated species richness declined over time at impacted beaches (beach fill and grooming), despite observed increases in overall intertidal richness. In contrast richness of these taxa increased at more than half (53%) of the beaches including two beaches recovering from decades of off‐road vehicle impacts. Over more than three decades, our results suggest that local scale processes exerted a stronger influence on intertidal biodiversity on beaches than regional processes and highlight the role of human impacts for local spatial scales. Our results illustrate how comparisons of overall biodiversity may mask ecologically important changes and stress the value of evaluating biodiversity change in the context of functional groups. The long‐term loss of wrack‐associated species, a key component of sandy beach ecosystems, documented here represents a significant threat to the biodiversity and function of coastal ecosystems.

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          Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.

          Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
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            The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

            Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.
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              The future of biodiversity.

              Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times their pre-human levels in well-known, but taxonomically diverse groups from widely different environments. If all species currently deemed "threatened" become extinct in the next century, then future extinction rates will be 10 times recent rates. Some threatened species will survive the century, but many species not now threatened will succumb. Regions rich in species found only within them (endemics) dominate the global patterns of extinction. Although new technology provides details of habitat losses, estimates of future extinctions are hampered by our limited knowledge of which areas are rich in endemics.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                nick.schooler@lifesci.ucsb.edu , nschooler@gmail.com
                Journal
                Ecol Evol
                Ecol Evol
                10.1002/(ISSN)2045-7758
                ECE3
                Ecology and Evolution
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2045-7758
                25 May 2017
                July 2017
                : 7
                : 13 ( doiID: 10.1002/ece3.2017.7.issue-13 )
                : 4822-4834
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] Marine Science InstituteUniversity of California, Santa Barbara Santa Barbara CAUSA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence

                Nicholas K. Schooler, Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.

                Emails: nick.schooler@ 123456lifesci.ucsb.edu , nschooler@ 123456gmail.com

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0502-8777
                Article
                ECE33064
                10.1002/ece3.3064
                5496535
                28690811
                e40864c3-928a-42b0-9474-75c38c76aaa5
                © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                History
                : 25 January 2017
                : 14 April 2017
                : 19 April 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 6, Tables: 2, Pages: 13, Words: 10641
                Funding
                Funded by: California Sea Grant
                Award ID: R/ENV 210, R/MPA‐24B
                Funded by: UCSB Coastal Fund
                Award ID: WIN09‐13
                Funded by: Santa Barbara Coastal LTER
                Award ID: OCE‐0620276, OCE‐1232779
                Categories
                Original Research
                Original Research
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                ece33064
                July 2017
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.1.2 mode:remove_FC converted:04.07.2017

                Evolutionary Biology
                anthropogenic impacts,coastal,habitat loss,intertidal,macroinvertebrates,macrophyte wrack,marine,recovery,species richness,species–area curves

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