Solution to Detect, Classify, and Report Illicit Online Marketing and Sales of Controlled Substances via Twitter: Using Machine Learning and Web Forensics to Combat Digital Opioid Access

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Abstract

Background

On December 6 and 7, 2017, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) hosted its first Code-a-Thon event aimed at leveraging technology and data-driven solutions to help combat the opioid epidemic. The authors—an interdisciplinary team from academia, the private sector, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—participated in the Code-a-Thon as part of the prevention track.

Objective

The aim of this study was to develop and deploy a methodology using machine learning to accurately detect the marketing and sale of opioids by illicit online sellers via Twitter as part of participation at the HHS Opioid Code-a-Thon event.

Methods

Tweets were collected from the Twitter public application programming interface stream filtered for common prescription opioid keywords in conjunction with participation in the Code-a-Thon from November 15, 2017 to December 5, 2017. An unsupervised machine learning–based approach was developed and used during the Code-a-Thon competition (24 hours) to obtain a summary of the content of the tweets to isolate those clusters associated with illegal online marketing and sale using a biterm topic model (BTM). After isolating relevant tweets, hyperlinks associated with these tweets were reviewed to assess the characteristics of illegal online sellers.

Results

We collected and analyzed 213,041 tweets over the course of the Code-a-Thon containing keywords codeine, percocet, vicodin, oxycontin, oxycodone, fentanyl, and hydrocodone. Using BTM, 0.32% (692/213,041) tweets were identified as being associated with illegal online marketing and sale of prescription opioids. After removing duplicates and dead links, we identified 34 unique “live” tweets, with 44% (15/34) directing consumers to illicit online pharmacies, 32% (11/34) linked to individual drug sellers, and 21% (7/34) used by marketing affiliates. In addition to offering the “no prescription” sale of opioids, many of these vendors also sold other controlled substances and illicit drugs.

Conclusions

The results of this study are in line with prior studies that have identified social media platforms, including Twitter, as a potential conduit for supply and sale of illicit opioids. To translate these results into action, authors also developed a prototype wireframe for the purposes of detecting, classifying, and reporting illicit online pharmacy tweets selling controlled substances illegally to the US Food and Drug Administration and the US Drug Enforcement Agency. Further development of solutions based on these methods has the potential to proactively alert regulators and law enforcement agencies of illegal opioid sales, while also making the online environment safer for the public.

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Most cited references 40

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The Role of Science in Addressing the Opioid Crisis

Nora D. Volkow, Francis Collins (2017)

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Social Media Use and Access to Digital Technology in US Young Adults in 2016

Andrea Villanti, Amanda Johnson, Vinu Ilakkuvan … (2017)

Background In 2015, 90% of US young adults with Internet access used social media. Digital and social media are highly prevalent modalities through which young adults explore identity formation, and by extension, learn and transmit norms about health and risk behaviors during this developmental life stage. Objective The purpose of this study was to provide updated estimates of social media use from 2014 to 2016 and correlates of social media use and access to digital technology in data collected from a national sample of US young adults in 2016. Methods Young adult participants aged 18-24 years in Wave 7 (October 2014, N=1259) and Wave 9 (February 2016, N=989) of the Truth Initiative Young Adult Cohort Study were asked about use frequency for 11 social media sites and access to digital devices, in addition to sociodemographic characteristics. Regular use was defined as using a given social media site at least weekly. Weighted analyses estimated the prevalence of use of each social media site, overlap between regular use of specific sites, and correlates of using a greater number of social media sites regularly. Bivariate analyses identified sociodemographic correlates of access to specific digital devices. Results In 2014, 89.42% (weighted n, 1126/1298) of young adults reported regular use of at least one social media site. This increased to 97.5% (weighted n, 965/989) of young adults in 2016. Among regular users of social media sites in 2016, the top five sites were Tumblr (85.5%), Vine (84.7%), Snapchat (81.7%), Instagram (80.7%), and LinkedIn (78.9%). Respondents reported regularly using an average of 7.6 social media sites, with 85% using 6 or more sites regularly. Overall, 87% of young adults reported access or use of a smartphone with Internet access, 74% a desktop or laptop computer with Internet access, 41% a tablet with Internet access, 29% a smart TV or video game console with Internet access, 11% a cell phone without Internet access, and 3% none of these. Access to all digital devices with Internet was lower in those reporting a lower subjective financial situation; there were also significant differences in access to specific digital devices with Internet by race, ethnicity, and education. Conclusions The high mean number of social media sites used regularly and the substantial overlap in use of multiple social media sites reflect the rapidly changing social media environment. Mobile devices are a primary channel for social media, and our study highlights disparities in access to digital technologies with Internet access among US young adults by race/ethnicity, education, and subjective financial status. Findings from this study may guide the development and implementation of future health interventions for young adults delivered via the Internet or social media sites.

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E-Cigarette Surveillance With Social Media Data: Social Bots, Emerging Topics, and Trends

Jon-Patrick Allem, Emilio Ferrara, Sree Priyanka Uppu … (2017)

Background As e-cigarette use rapidly increases in popularity, data from online social systems (Twitter, Instagram, Google Web Search) can be used to capture and describe the social and environmental context in which individuals use, perceive, and are marketed this tobacco product. Social media data may serve as a massive focus group where people organically discuss e-cigarettes unprimed by a researcher, without instrument bias, captured in near real time and at low costs. Objective This study documents e-cigarette–related discussions on Twitter, describing themes of conversations and locations where Twitter users often discuss e-cigarettes, to identify priority areas for e-cigarette education campaigns. Additionally, this study demonstrates the importance of distinguishing between social bots and human users when attempting to understand public health–related behaviors and attitudes. Methods E-cigarette–related posts on Twitter (N=6,185,153) were collected from December 24, 2016, to April 21, 2017. Techniques drawn from network science were used to determine discussions of e-cigarettes by describing which hashtags co-occur (concept clusters) in a Twitter network. Posts and metadata were used to describe where geographically e-cigarette–related discussions in the United States occurred. Machine learning models were used to distinguish between Twitter posts reflecting attitudes and behaviors of genuine human users from those of social bots. Odds ratios were computed from 2x2 contingency tables to detect if hashtags varied by source (social bot vs human user) using the Fisher exact test to determine statistical significance. Results Clusters found in the corpus of hashtags from human users included behaviors (eg, #vaping), vaping identity (eg, #vapelife), and vaping community (eg, #vapenation). Additional clusters included products (eg, #eliquids), dual tobacco use (eg, #hookah), and polysubstance use (eg, #marijuana). Clusters found in the corpus of hashtags from social bots included health (eg, #health), smoking cessation (eg, #quitsmoking), and new products (eg, #ismog). Social bots were significantly more likely to post hashtags that referenced smoking cessation and new products compared to human users. The volume of tweets was highest in the Mid-Atlantic (eg, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, and New York), followed by the West Coast and Southwest (eg, California, Arizona and Nevada). Conclusions Social media data may be used to complement and extend the surveillance of health behaviors including tobacco product use. Public health researchers could harness these data and methods to identify new products or devices. Furthermore, findings from this study demonstrate the importance of distinguishing between Twitter posts from social bots and humans when attempting to understand attitudes and behaviors. Social bots may be used to perpetuate the idea that e-cigarettes are helpful in cessation and to promote new products as they enter the marketplace.

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Author and article information

Contributors

Tim Mackey:

Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public HealthDepartment of Anesthesiology, School of MedicineUniversity of California San Diego8950 Villa La Jolla Drive, A124La Jolla, CA, 92037United States1 9514914161tmackey@ucsd.edu

ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2191-7833

Journal

Journal ID (nlm-ta): J Med Internet Res

Journal ID (iso-abbrev): J. Med. Internet Res

Journal ID (publisher-id): JMIR

Title: Journal of Medical Internet Research

Publisher: JMIR Publications (Toronto, Canada )

ISSN (Print): 1439-4456

ISSN (Electronic): 1438-8871

Publication date Collection: April 2018

Publication date (Electronic): 27 April 2018

Volume: 20

Issue: 4

Electronic Location Identifier: e10029

Affiliations

[1] ¹ Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public Health Department of Anesthesiology, School of Medicine University of California San Diego La Jolla, CA United States

[2] ² Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Jacobs School of Engineering University of California San Diego La Jolla, CA United States

[3] ³ IBM Global Business Services Washington, DC United States

[4] ⁴ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Atlanta, GA United States

Author notes

Corresponding Author: Tim Mackey tmackey@ 123456ucsd.edu

Author information

Tim Mackey http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2191-7833

Janani Kalyanam http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9795-4844

Josh Klugman http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8941-4124

Ella Kuzmenko http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0761-1800

Rashmi Gupta http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0363-3343

Article

Publisher ID: v20i4e10029

DOI: 10.2196/10029

PMC ID: 5948414

PubMed ID: 29613851

SO-VID: e4633d96-9ab3-4d98-80e4-ab494988d12f

License:

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.

History

Date received : 5 February 2018

Date revision requested : 22 February 2018

Date revision received : 27 March 2018

Date accepted : 28 March 2018

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