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      Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990–2004

      , , , ,
      Atmospheric Environment
      Elsevier BV

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          Combining quantitative and qualitative measures of uncertainty in model-based environmental assessment: the NUSAP system.

          This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength. It provides an analytic tool to prioritize uncertainties according to quantitative and qualitative insights in the limitations of available knowledge. We show that extension of the pedigree scheme to include societal dimensions of uncertainty, such as problem framing and value-laden assumptions, further promotes reflexivity and collective learning. When used in a deliberative setting, NUSAP pedigree assessment has the potential to foster a deeper social debate and a negotiated management of complex environmental problems.
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            A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error

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              Application of a checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling to an energy model

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Atmospheric Environment
                Atmospheric Environment
                Elsevier BV
                13522310
                November 2008
                November 2008
                : 42
                : 35
                : 8263-8272
                Article
                10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.07.059
                e528ba03-e459-4f48-80e2-3e211f8f7c36
                © 2008

                https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

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