Blog
About

  • Record: found
  • Abstract: found
  • Article: not found

Stochastic techno-economic evaluation of cellulosic biofuel pathways.

Read this article at

ScienceOpenPublisherPubMed
Bookmark
      There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

      Abstract

      This study evaluates the economic feasibility and stochastic dominance rank of eight cellulosic biofuel production pathways (including gasification, pyrolysis, liquefaction, and fermentation) under technological and economic uncertainty. A techno-economic assessment based financial analysis is employed to derive net present values and breakeven prices for each pathway. Uncertainty is investigated and incorporated into fuel prices and techno-economic variables: capital cost, conversion technology yield, hydrogen cost, natural gas price and feedstock cost using @Risk, a Palisade Corporation software. The results indicate that none of the eight pathways would be profitable at expected values under projected energy prices. Fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (FPH) has the lowest breakeven fuel price at 3.11$/gallon of gasoline equivalent (0.82$/liter of gasoline equivalent). With the projected energy prices, FPH investors could expect a 59% probability of loss. Stochastic dominance is done based on return on investment. Most risk-averse decision makers would prefer FPH to other pathways.

      Related collections

      Author and article information

      Affiliations
      [1 ] Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA. Electronic address: zhao269@purdue.edu.
      [2 ] Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA.
      [3 ] Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA.
      Journal
      Bioresour. Technol.
      Bioresource technology
      Elsevier BV
      1873-2976
      0960-8524
      Dec 2015
      : 198
      26454041 S0960-8524(15)01335-8 10.1016/j.biortech.2015.09.056

      Comments

      Comment on this article