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      An Indicator of the Impact of Climatic Change on European Bird Populations

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          Abstract

          Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20 th and late 21 st centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.

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          Most cited references23

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          On the Relationship between Abundance and Distribution of Species

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            The impact of climate change on birds

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              Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming.

              Until recently, published evidence for the responses of species to climate change had revealed more examples of species expanding than retracting their distributions. However, recent papers on butterflies and frogs now show that population-level and species-level extinctions are occurring. The relative lack of previous information about range retractions and extinctions appears to stem, at least partly, from a failure to survey the distributions of species at sufficiently fine resolution to detect declines, and from a failure to attribute such declines to climate change. The new evidence suggests that climate-driven extinctions and range retractions are already widespread.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2009
                4 March 2009
                : 4
                : 3
                : e4678
                Affiliations
                [1 ]The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds & European Bird Census Council, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
                [2 ]Institute of Ecosystem Science, School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
                [3 ]Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, UMR 5173 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, CRBPO, Paris, France
                [4 ]Czech Society for Ornithology, Prague, Czech Republic
                [5 ]Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg, the Netherlands
                [6 ]The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom
                [7 ]Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
                University of Kent, United Kingdom
                Author notes

                Conceived and designed the experiments: RG SW FJ BH RG. Analyzed the data: RG SW FJ PV AK AVS BH YCC RG. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AVS. Wrote the paper: RG SW FJ BH RG. Contributed to the above: DC.

                Article
                08-PONE-RA-05462R1
                10.1371/journal.pone.0004678
                2649536
                19259270
                e69f5792-a09e-47fa-8a01-01b00a681594
                Gregory et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 10 July 2008
                : 12 December 2008
                Page count
                Pages: 6
                Categories
                Research Article
                Ecology/Community Ecology and Biodiversity
                Ecology/Global Change Ecology
                Ecology/Population Ecology

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                Uncategorized

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