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      A Dutch Book against Sleeping Beauties Who Are Evidential Decision Theorists

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          Abstract

          In the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem, it has been argued that so-called "halfers" can avoid Dutch book arguments by adopting evidential decision theory. I introduce a Dutch book for a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem and argue that evidential decision theorists fall prey to it, whether they are halfers or thirders. The argument crucially requires that an action can provide evidence for what the agent would do not only at other decision points where she has exactly the same information, but also at decision points where she has different but "symmetric" information.

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          Most cited references 9

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          Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem

           Adam Elga (2000)
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            Beauty and the Bets

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              Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief

               Adam Elga (2004)
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                2017-05-08
                Article
                10.1007/s11229-015-0691-7
                1705.03560

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

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                Synthese, Volume 192, Issue 9, pp. 2887-2899, October 2015
                This paper appears in {\em Synthese}, Volume 192, Issue 9, pp. 2887-2899, October 2015. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0691-7
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