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      Air quality trends in Europe over the past decade: a first multi-model assessment

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          Abstract

          <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> We discuss the capability of current state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models to reproduce air quality trends and interannual variability. Documenting these strengths and weaknesses on the basis of historical simulations is essential before the models are used to investigate future air quality projections. To achieve this, a coordinated modelling exercise was performed in the framework of the CityZEN European Project. It involved six regional and global chemistry-transport models (BOLCHEM, CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD, OSLOCTM2 and MOZART) simulating air quality over the past decade in the Western European anthropogenic emissions hotspots. <br><br> Comparisons between models and observations allow assessing the skills of the models to capture the trends in basic atmospheric constituents (NO<sub>2</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>, and PM<sub>10</sub>). We find that the trends of primary constituents are well reproduced (except in some countries – owing to their sensitivity to the emission inventory) although capturing the more moderate trends of secondary species such as O<sub>3</sub> is more challenging. Apart from the long term trend, the modelled monthly variability is consistent with the observations but the year-to-year variability is generally underestimated. <br><br> A comparison of simulations where anthropogenic emissions are kept constant is also investigated. We find that the magnitude of the emission-driven trend exceeds the natural variability for primary compounds. We can thus conclude that emission management strategies have had a significant impact over the past 10 yr, hence supporting further emission reductions.</p>

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          Description and evaluation of the Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4)

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            Bias correction of monthly precipitation and temperature fields from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 models using equidistant quantile matching

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              Global wildland fire emissions from 1960 to 2000

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
                Atmos. Chem. Phys.
                Copernicus GmbH
                1680-7324
                2011
                November 22 2011
                : 11
                : 22
                : 11657-11678
                Article
                10.5194/acp-11-11657-2011
                e892c8a0-6135-44cf-8904-c0046786a18a
                © 2011

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

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