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      International Journal of COPD (submit here)

      This international, peer-reviewed Open Access journal by Dove Medical Press focuses on pathophysiological processes underlying Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) interventions, patient focused education, and self-management protocols. Sign up for email alerts here.

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      Prediction of short term re-exacerbation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

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          Abstract

          Background

          The objective of the study is to develop a scoring system for predicting a 90-day re-exacerbation in hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

          Methods

          A total of 176 consecutive hospitalized patients with AECOPD were included. The sociodemographic characteristics, status before acute exacerbation (AE), presentations of and treatment for the current AE, and the re-exacerbation in 90 days after discharge from hospital were collected.

          Results

          The re-exacerbation rate in 90 days was 48.9% (86 out of 176). It was associated with the degree of lung function impairment (Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades), frequency of AE in the previous year, and parameters of the current AE, including pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, controlled oxygen therapy, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital stay, but was not associated with body mass index, modified Medical Research Council scale, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test. A subgroup of ten variables was selected and developed into the re-exacerbation index scoring system (age grades, GOLD grades, AE times in the previous year, pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, controlled oxygen therapy, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids, and length of hospital stay). The re-exacerbation index showed good discrimination for re-exacerbation, with a C-statistic of 0.750 ( P<0.001).

          Conclusion

          A comprehensive assessment integrating parameters of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical presentations at exacerbation, and treatment showed a strong predictive capacity for short-term outcome in patients with AECOPD. Further studies are required to verify these findings.

          Most cited references19

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          The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

          A representation and interpretation of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve obtained by the "rating" method, or by mathematical predictions based on patient characteristics, is presented. It is shown that in such a setting the area represents the probability that a randomly chosen diseased subject is (correctly) rated or ranked with greater suspicion than a randomly chosen non-diseased subject. Moreover, this probability of a correct ranking is the same quantity that is estimated by the already well-studied nonparametric Wilcoxon statistic. These two relationships are exploited to (a) provide rapid closed-form expressions for the approximate magnitude of the sampling variability, i.e., standard error that one uses to accompany the area under a smoothed ROC curve, (b) guide in determining the size of the sample required to provide a sufficiently reliable estimate of this area, and (c) determine how large sample sizes should be to ensure that one can statistically detect differences in the accuracy of diagnostic techniques.
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            Susceptibility to exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

            Although we know that exacerbations are key events in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), our understanding of their frequency, determinants, and effects is incomplete. In a large observational cohort, we tested the hypothesis that there is a frequent-exacerbation phenotype of COPD that is independent of disease severity. We analyzed the frequency and associations of exacerbation in 2138 patients enrolled in the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. Exacerbations were defined as events that led a care provider to prescribe antibiotics or corticosteroids (or both) or that led to hospitalization (severe exacerbations). Exacerbation frequency was observed over a period of 3 years. Exacerbations became more frequent (and more severe) as the severity of COPD increased; exacerbation rates in the first year of follow-up were 0.85 per person for patients with stage 2 COPD (with stage defined in accordance with Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stages), 1.34 for patients with stage 3, and 2.00 for patients with stage 4. Overall, 22% of patients with stage 2 disease, 33% with stage 3, and 47% with stage 4 had frequent exacerbations (two or more in the first year of follow-up). The single best predictor of exacerbations, across all GOLD stages, was a history of exacerbations. The frequent-exacerbation phenotype appeared to be relatively stable over a period of 3 years and could be predicted on the basis of the patient's recall of previous treated events. In addition to its association with more severe disease and prior exacerbations, the phenotype was independently associated with a history of gastroesophageal reflux or heartburn, poorer quality of life, and elevated white-cell count. Although exacerbations become more frequent and more severe as COPD progresses, the rate at which they occur appears to reflect an independent susceptibility phenotype. This has implications for the targeting of exacerbation-prevention strategies across the spectrum of disease severity. (Funded by GlaxoSmithKline; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00292552.)
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              Lung function testing: selection of reference values and interpretative strategies. American Thoracic Society.

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                International Journal of COPD
                International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
                Dove Medical Press
                1176-9106
                1178-2005
                2015
                02 July 2015
                : 10
                : 1265-1273
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                [2 ]Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                [3 ]Shaowu Municipal Hospital, Fujian, People’s Republic of China
                [4 ]The People’s Hospital of Song County, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China
                [5 ]Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Jing Zhang, Department of Pulmonary Disease, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, No 180 of Fenglin Road, Shanghai 200032, People’s Republic of China, Email zhang.jing@ 123456zs-hospital.sh.cn
                Jie-Ming Qu, Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, No 221 of Yan’an West Road, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China, Email jmqu0906@ 123456163.com
                Article
                copd-10-1265
                10.2147/COPD.S83378
                4494178
                26170655
                e8f49e15-7522-4ee7-aa79-9a2585ca2e8a
                © 2015 Liu et al. This work is published by Dove Medical Press Limited, and licensed under Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License

                The full terms of the License are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

                History
                Categories
                Original Research

                Respiratory medicine
                chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,acute exacerbation,treatment,re-exacerbation

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