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      Prediction of short term re-exacerbation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

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          The objective of the study is to develop a scoring system for predicting a 90-day re-exacerbation in hospitalized patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).


          A total of 176 consecutive hospitalized patients with AECOPD were included. The sociodemographic characteristics, status before acute exacerbation (AE), presentations of and treatment for the current AE, and the re-exacerbation in 90 days after discharge from hospital were collected.


          The re-exacerbation rate in 90 days was 48.9% (86 out of 176). It was associated with the degree of lung function impairment (Global initiative for chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] grades), frequency of AE in the previous year, and parameters of the current AE, including pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, controlled oxygen therapy, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, and length of hospital stay, but was not associated with body mass index, modified Medical Research Council scale, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test. A subgroup of ten variables was selected and developed into the re-exacerbation index scoring system (age grades, GOLD grades, AE times in the previous year, pleural effusion, use of accessory respiratory muscles, noninvasive mechanical ventilation, controlled oxygen therapy, inhaled long-acting β-2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids, and length of hospital stay). The re-exacerbation index showed good discrimination for re-exacerbation, with a C-statistic of 0.750 ( P<0.001).


          A comprehensive assessment integrating parameters of stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, clinical presentations at exacerbation, and treatment showed a strong predictive capacity for short-term outcome in patients with AECOPD. Further studies are required to verify these findings.

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          Most cited references 17

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          Lung function testing: selection of reference values and interpretative strategies. American Thoracic Society.

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            Severe exacerbations and BODE index: two independent risk factors for death in male COPD patients.

            1) To determine whether severe exacerbation of COPD is a BODE index independent risk factor for death; 2) whether the combined application of exacerbations and BODE (e-BODE index), offers greater predictive capacity than BODE alone or can simplify the model, by replacing the exercise capacity (BODEx index). A prospective study was made of a cohort of COPD patients. In addition to calculation of the BODE index we register frequency of exacerbations. An analysis was made of all-cause mortality, evaluating the predictive capacity of the exacerbations after adjusting for the BODE. These variables were also used to construct two new indexes: e-BODE and BODEx. The study included 185 patients with a mean age of 71+/-9 years, and FEV(1)% 47+/-17%. Severe exacerbation appeared as an independent adverse prognostic variable of BODE index. For each new exacerbation the adjusted mortality risk increased 1.14-fold (95% CI: 1.04-1.25). However, the e-BODE index (C statistic: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.67-0.86) didn't improve prognostic capacity of BODE index (C statistic: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.66-0.84) (p=NS). An interesting finding was that BODEx index (C statistic: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.65-0.83) had similar prognostic capacity than BODE index. Severe exacerbations of COPD imply an increased mortality risk that is independent of baseline severity of the disease as measured by the BODE index. The combined application of both parameters (e-BODE index) didn't improve the predictive capacity, but on replacing exacerbation with exercise capacity the multidimensional grading system is simplified without loss of predictive capacity.
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              Time course and pattern of COPD exacerbation onset.

              The natural history and time course of the onset of exacerbation events of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is incompletely understood. A prospective cohort of 212 patients with COPD was monitored using daily symptom diaries for a median of 2.8 years to characterise the time course of COPD exacerbation onset. Decision rules based on weighted self-reported symptoms were used to define opening and closing of exacerbation events. Event time intervals were analysed and logistic regression was used to determine the effects of patient covariates on exacerbation events. Patients recorded 4439 episodes of worsening respiratory symptoms from baseline; 2444 (55%) events resolved spontaneously and 1995 (45%) resulted in a COPD exacerbation. In 1115 of the 1995 COPD exacerbations (56%) the onset was sudden and the exacerbation threshold was crossed on the same day symptoms began. In contrast, 44% of exacerbations were characterised by gradual onset of symptoms (median duration from symptom onset to exacerbation 4 days). Patients who experienced sudden onset exacerbations had greater mean daily symptom scores (7.86 vs. 6.55 points, p<0.001), greater peak symptom scores (10.7 vs. 10.2 points, p=0.003), earlier peak symptoms (4.5 vs. 8.0 days, p<0.001) and shorter median recovery times back to baseline health status (11 vs. 13 days, p<0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that gradual onset exacerbations were statistically associated with a longer duration of exacerbation recovery (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.54, p=0.010). COPD exacerbations exhibit two distinct patterns-sudden and gradual onset. Sudden onset exacerbations are associated with increased respiratory symptoms but shorter exacerbation recovery times.

                Author and article information

                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                International Journal of COPD
                International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
                Dove Medical Press
                02 July 2015
                : 10
                : 1265-1273
                [1 ]Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                [2 ]Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                [3 ]Shaowu Municipal Hospital, Fujian, People’s Republic of China
                [4 ]The People’s Hospital of Song County, Henan Province, People’s Republic of China
                [5 ]Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University, School of Medicine, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Jing Zhang, Department of Pulmonary Disease, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, No 180 of Fenglin Road, Shanghai 200032, People’s Republic of China, Email zhang.jing@
                Jie-Ming Qu, Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Huadong Hospital, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, No 221 of Yan’an West Road, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China, Email jmqu0906@
                © 2015 Liu et al. This work is published by Dove Medical Press Limited, and licensed under Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License

                The full terms of the License are available at Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

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