The Effect of Socioeconomic Factors on Spatiotemporal Patterns of PM _2.5 Concentration in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region and Surrounding Areas

Abstract

The study investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of PM _2.5 concentration in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and surrounding areas during 2015–2017, and then analyzed its socioeconomic determinants. First, an estimation model considering spatiotemporal heterogeneous relationships was developed to accurately estimate the spatial distribution of PM _2.5 concentration. Additionally, socioeconomic determinants of PM _2.5 concentration were analyzed using a spatial panel Dubin model, which aimed to improve the robustness of the model estimation. The results demonstrated that: (1) The proposed model significantly increased the estimation accuracy of PM _2.5 concentration. The mean absolute error and root-mean-square error were 9.21 μg/m ³ and 13.10 μg/m ³, respectively. (2) PM _2.5 concentration in the study area exhibited significant spatiotemporal changes. Although the PM _2.5 concentration has declined year by year, it still exceeded national environmental air quality standards. (3) The per capita GDP, urbanization rate and number of industrial enterprises above the designated size were the key factors affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of PM _2.5 concentration. This study provided scientific references for comprehensive PM _2.5 pollution control in the study area.