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      Sistema de Alerta Temprana para la predicción de crisis cambiarias: El caso boliviano en el periodo de 2008 al 2018 Translated title: Early Warning System for the prediction of currency crises: The Bolivian case in the period from 2008 to 2018

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          Abstract

          En este trabajo se estudia el efecto de los factores específicos del país, así como el de los factores internacionales, sobre la probabilidad de una crisis cambiaria en Bolivia. La probabilidad estimada de que un país se enfrente a una crisis aumenta con la existencia de una moneda sobrevalorada, una caída de las reservas internacionales en relación con la cantidad de dinero en circulación, una caída de las exportaciones, y el aumento de los tipos de interés mundiales. Un sistema de alerta basado en el anterior conjunto de indicadores adelantados ayudaría a identificar situaciones de vulnerabilidad financiera, de tal forma que nos permitiese evadir el impacto negativo que traen las crisis de balanza de pagos a la economía y a la sociedad. A este efecto, este trabajo pretende formular un sistema de alerta temprana en función al análisis histórico de una serie de indicadores, con el fin de pronosticar la ocurrencia de una crisis cambiaría en Bolivia para los años 2017 y 2018.

          Translated abstract

          In this paper we study the effect of country-specific factors, as well as international factors, on the probability of a currency crisis in Bolivia. The estimated probability of a country facing a crisis increases with the existence of an overvalued currency, a fall in international reserves in relation to the amount of money in circulation, a drop in exports, and an increase in the types of interests. An early warning system based on the previous set of leading indicators would help to identify situations of financial vulnerability, so as to allow us to avoid the negative impact of balance of payments crises on the economy and society. For this purpose, this paper aims to formulate an early warning system based on the historical analysis of a series of indicators, in order to predict the occurrence of a currency crisis in Bolivia for the years 2017 and 2018.

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          Most cited references13

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          The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems

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            On the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for Normality with Mean and Variance Unknown

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              A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                rp
                Revista Perspectivas
                Perspectivas
                Universidad Católica Boliviana San Pablo, Unidad Académica Regional Cochabamba (Cochabamba, , Bolivia )
                1994-3733
                November 2017
                : 40
                : 7-40
                Affiliations
                [01] Cochabamba orgnameUniversidad Católica Boliviana -San Pablo' orgdiv1Unidad Académica Regional de Cochabamba Keiko7451@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                S1994-37332017000200002 S1994-3733(17)00004000002
                ea54f6a7-e15b-4524-9283-6d648f02c92f

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 2017
                : 04 July 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 26, Pages: 34
                Product

                SciELO Bolivia

                Categories
                Articulos

                Economía Boliviana,Early Warning System,Crisis cambiarías,Sistema de Alerta Temprana,Currency crisis,Bolivian economy

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