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      Impact of Climate Change on Vibrio vulnificus Abundance and Exposure Risk

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          Abstract

          <p class="first" id="P1"> <i>Vibrio</i> species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all <i>Vibrio</i> infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. <i>V. vulnificus</i> (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16–33 °C) and salinity (5–20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk. </p>

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          Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

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            Is Open Access

            Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

            Significance Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainfall, allowing for quantitative assessment of hurricane flooding risks in all locations affected by such storms, regardless of the presence or quality of historical hurricane records.
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              Long-term effects of ocean warming on the prokaryotic community: evidence from the vibrios.

              The long-term effects of ocean warming on prokaryotic communities are unknown because of lack of historical data. We overcame this gap by applying a retrospective molecular analysis to the bacterial community on formalin-fixed samples from the historical Continuous Plankton Recorder archive, which is one of the longest and most geographically extensive collections of marine biological samples in the world. We showed that during the last half century, ubiquitous marine bacteria of the Vibrio genus, including Vibrio cholerae, increased in dominance within the plankton-associated bacterial community of the North Sea, where an unprecedented increase in bathing infections related to these bacteria was recently reported. Among environmental variables, increased sea surface temperature explained 45% of the variance in Vibrio data, supporting the view that ocean warming is favouring the spread of vibrios and may be the cause of the globally increasing trend in their associated diseases.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Estuaries and Coasts
                Estuaries and Coasts
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                1559-2723
                1559-2731
                December 2018
                June 7 2018
                December 2018
                : 41
                : 8
                : 2289-2303
                Article
                10.1007/s12237-018-0424-5
                6602088
                31263385
                ebbfb9a7-494b-4ff5-91a5-580630e37458
                © 2018

                http://www.springer.com/tdm


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