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      Predicting AKI in emergency admissions: an external validation study of the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS)

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          Abstract

          Objectives

          Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is associated with a high risk of mortality. Prediction models or rules may identify those most at risk of HA-AKI. This study externally validated one of the few clinical prediction rules (CPRs) derived in a general medicine cohort using clinical information and data from an acute hospitals electronic system on admission: the acute kidney injury prediction score (APS).

          Design, setting and participants

          External validation in a single UK non-specialist acute hospital (2013–2015, 12 554 episodes); four cohorts: adult medical and general surgical populations, with and without a known preadmission baseline serum creatinine (SCr).

          Methods

          Performance assessed by discrimination using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCROC) and calibration.

          Results

          HA-AKI incidence within 7 days (kidney disease: improving global outcomes (KDIGO) change in SCr) was 8.1% (n=409) of medical patients with known baseline SCr, 6.6% (n=141) in those without a baseline, 4.9% (n=204) in surgical patients with baseline and 4% (n=49) in those without. Across the four cohorts AUCROC were: medical with known baseline 0.65 (95% CIs 0.62 to 0.67) and no baseline 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75), surgical with baseline 0.66 (0.62 to 0.70) and no baseline 0.68 (0.58 to 0.75). For calibration, in medicine and surgical cohorts with baseline SCr, Hosmer-Lemeshow p values were non-significant, suggesting acceptable calibration. In the medical cohort, at a cut-off of five points on the APS to predict HA-AKI, positive predictive value was 16% (13–18%) and negative predictive value 94% (93–94%). Of medical patients with HA-AKI, those with an APS ≥5 had a significantly increased risk of death (28% vs 18%, OR 1.8 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.9), p=0.015).

          Conclusions

          On external validation the APS on admission shows moderate discrimination and acceptable calibration to predict HA-AKI and may be useful as a severity marker when HA-AKI occurs. Harnessing linked data from primary care may be one way to achieve more accurate risk prediction.

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          Most cited references 43

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          Acute kidney injury, mortality, length of stay, and costs in hospitalized patients.

          The marginal effects of acute kidney injury on in-hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), and costs have not been well described. A consecutive sample of 19,982 adults who were admitted to an urban academic medical center, including 9210 who had two or more serum creatinine (SCr) determinations, was evaluated. The presence and degree of acute kidney injury were assessed using absolute and relative increases from baseline to peak SCr concentration during hospitalization. Large increases in SCr concentration were relatively rare (e.g., >or=2.0 mg/dl in 105 [1%] patients), whereas more modest increases in SCr were common (e.g., >or=0.5 mg/dl in 1237 [13%] patients). Modest changes in SCr were significantly associated with mortality, LOS, and costs, even after adjustment for age, gender, admission International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis, severity of illness (diagnosis-related group weight), and chronic kidney disease. For example, an increase in SCr >or=0.5 mg/dl was associated with a 6.5-fold (95% confidence interval 5.0 to 8.5) increase in the odds of death, a 3.5-d increase in LOS, and nearly 7500 dollars in excess hospital costs. Acute kidney injury is associated with significantly increased mortality, LOS, and costs across a broad spectrum of conditions. Moreover, outcomes are related directly to the severity of acute kidney injury, whether characterized by nominal or percentage changes in serum creatinine.
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            Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction.

            The c statistic, or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, achieved popularity in diagnostic testing, in which the test characteristics of sensitivity and specificity are relevant to discriminating diseased versus nondiseased patients. The c statistic, however, may not be optimal in assessing models that predict future risk or stratify individuals into risk categories. In this setting, calibration is as important to the accurate assessment of risk. For example, a biomarker with an odds ratio of 3 may have little effect on the c statistic, yet an increased level could shift estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk for an individual patient from 8% to 24%, which would lead to different treatment recommendations under current Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Accepted risk factors such as lipids, hypertension, and smoking have only marginal impact on the c statistic individually yet lead to more accurate reclassification of large proportions of patients into higher-risk or lower-risk categories. Perfectly calibrated models for complex disease can, in fact, only achieve values for the c statistic well below the theoretical maximum of 1. Use of the c statistic for model selection could thus naively eliminate established risk factors from cardiovascular risk prediction scores. As novel risk factors are discovered, sole reliance on the c statistic to evaluate their utility as risk predictors thus seems ill-advised.
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              Ten commandments for effective clinical decision support: making the practice of evidence-based medicine a reality.

              While evidence-based medicine has increasingly broad-based support in health care, it remains difficult to get physicians to actually practice it. Across most domains in medicine, practice has lagged behind knowledge by at least several years. The authors believe that the key tools for closing this gap will be information systems that provide decision support to users at the time they make decisions, which should result in improved quality of care. Furthermore, providers make many errors, and clinical decision support can be useful for finding and preventing such errors. Over the last eight years the authors have implemented and studied the impact of decision support across a broad array of domains and have found a number of common elements important to success. The goal of this report is to discuss these lessons learned in the interest of informing the efforts of others working to make the practice of evidence-based medicine a reality.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Open
                bmjopen
                bmjopen
                BMJ Open
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2044-6055
                2017
                8 March 2017
                : 7
                : 3
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Academic Unit of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Southampton General Hospital , University of Southampton , Southampton, UK
                [2 ]Anaesthetics Department, Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust , Worthing, UK
                [3 ]The Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust , Guildford, UK
                [4 ]Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey , Guildford, UK
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Luke E Hodgson; drlhodgson@ 123456gmail.com
                Article
                bmjopen-2016-013511
                10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013511
                5353262
                28274964
                Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

                This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

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                Categories
                Renal Medicine
                Research
                1506
                1728
                1730

                Medicine

                general medicine (see internal medicine)

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