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      Prediction of response and survival after standardized treatment with 7400 MBq 177Lu-PSMA-617 every 4 weeks in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

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          Abstract

          Background and aims

          [ 177Lu]Lu-PSMA-617 radioligand therapy (PSMA-RLT) is a new therapy for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). However, identification of reliable prognostic factors is hampered by heterogeneous treatment regimens applied in previous studies. Hence, we sought clinical factors able to predict response and survival to PSMA-RLT in a homogenous group of patients, all receiving 7400 MBq every 4 weeks.

          Patients and methods

          Data of 61 patients (mean age 71.6 ± 6.9 years, median basal PSA 70.7 [range 1.0–4890 μg/L]), pretreated with abiraterone/enzalutamide (75.4%) and docetaxel/cabazitaxel (68.9%), received three cycles of PSMA-RLT (mean 7321 ± 592 MBq) at four weekly intervals and were analyzed retrospectively. General medical conditions and laboratory parameters of every patients were regularly assessed. Response to therapy was based on PSA levels 1 month after the 3rd cycle. Binary logistic regression test and Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to evaluate predictors and overall survival (OS).

          Results

          Forty-nine (80.3%) patients demonstrated a therapy response in terms of any PSA decline, while 21 (19.7%) patients showed increase or no changes in their PSA levels. Baseline hemoglobin (Hb) significantly predicted PSA reductions of ≥ 50% 4 weeks after receiving the 3rd PSMA-RLT ( P = 0.01, 95% CI: 1.09–2.09) with an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.54–0.81). The levels of basal Hb and basal PSA were able to predict survival of patients, both P < 0.05 (relative risk 1.51 and 0.79, 95% CI: 1.09–2.09 and 0.43–1.46), respectively. In comparison to patients with reduced basal Hb, patients with normal basal Hb levels lived significantly longer (median survival not reached vs. 89 weeks, P = 0.016). Also, patients with basal PSA levels ≤ 650 μg/L had a significantly longer survival than patients with basal PSA levels > 650 μg/L (median survival not reached vs. 97 weeks, P = 0.031). Neither pretreatments with abiraterone/enzalutamide or docetaxel/cabazitaxel nor distribution of metastasis affected survival and rate of response to PSMA-RLT.

          Conclusion

          Basal Hb level is an independent predictor for therapy response and survival in patients receiving PSMA-RLT every 4 weeks. Both baseline PSA ≤ 650 μg/L and normal Hb levels were associated with longer survival.

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          Most cited references20

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          New response evaluation criteria in solid tumours: revised RECIST guideline (version 1.1).

          Assessment of the change in tumour burden is an important feature of the clinical evaluation of cancer therapeutics: both tumour shrinkage (objective response) and disease progression are useful endpoints in clinical trials. Since RECIST was published in 2000, many investigators, cooperative groups, industry and government authorities have adopted these criteria in the assessment of treatment outcomes. However, a number of questions and issues have arisen which have led to the development of a revised RECIST guideline (version 1.1). Evidence for changes, summarised in separate papers in this special issue, has come from assessment of a large data warehouse (>6500 patients), simulation studies and literature reviews. HIGHLIGHTS OF REVISED RECIST 1.1: Major changes include: Number of lesions to be assessed: based on evidence from numerous trial databases merged into a data warehouse for analysis purposes, the number of lesions required to assess tumour burden for response determination has been reduced from a maximum of 10 to a maximum of five total (and from five to two per organ, maximum). Assessment of pathological lymph nodes is now incorporated: nodes with a short axis of 15 mm are considered measurable and assessable as target lesions. The short axis measurement should be included in the sum of lesions in calculation of tumour response. Nodes that shrink to <10mm short axis are considered normal. Confirmation of response is required for trials with response primary endpoint but is no longer required in randomised studies since the control arm serves as appropriate means of interpretation of data. Disease progression is clarified in several aspects: in addition to the previous definition of progression in target disease of 20% increase in sum, a 5mm absolute increase is now required as well to guard against over calling PD when the total sum is very small. Furthermore, there is guidance offered on what constitutes 'unequivocal progression' of non-measurable/non-target disease, a source of confusion in the original RECIST guideline. Finally, a section on detection of new lesions, including the interpretation of FDG-PET scan assessment is included. Imaging guidance: the revised RECIST includes a new imaging appendix with updated recommendations on the optimal anatomical assessment of lesions. A key question considered by the RECIST Working Group in developing RECIST 1.1 was whether it was appropriate to move from anatomic unidimensional assessment of tumour burden to either volumetric anatomical assessment or to functional assessment with PET or MRI. It was concluded that, at present, there is not sufficient standardisation or evidence to abandon anatomical assessment of tumour burden. The only exception to this is in the use of FDG-PET imaging as an adjunct to determination of progression. As is detailed in the final paper in this special issue, the use of these promising newer approaches requires appropriate clinical validation studies.
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            Variable selection – A review and recommendations for the practicing statistician

            Abstract Statistical models support medical research by facilitating individualized outcome prognostication conditional on independent variables or by estimating effects of risk factors adjusted for covariates. Theory of statistical models is well‐established if the set of independent variables to consider is fixed and small. Hence, we can assume that effect estimates are unbiased and the usual methods for confidence interval estimation are valid. In routine work, however, it is not known a priori which covariates should be included in a model, and often we are confronted with the number of candidate variables in the range 10–30. This number is often too large to be considered in a statistical model. We provide an overview of various available variable selection methods that are based on significance or information criteria, penalized likelihood, the change‐in‐estimate criterion, background knowledge, or combinations thereof. These methods were usually developed in the context of a linear regression model and then transferred to more generalized linear models or models for censored survival data. Variable selection, in particular if used in explanatory modeling where effect estimates are of central interest, can compromise stability of a final model, unbiasedness of regression coefficients, and validity of p‐values or confidence intervals. Therefore, we give pragmatic recommendations for the practicing statistician on application of variable selection methods in general (low‐dimensional) modeling problems and on performing stability investigations and inference. We also propose some quantities based on resampling the entire variable selection process to be routinely reported by software packages offering automated variable selection algorithms.
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              German Multicenter Study Investigating 177Lu-PSMA-617 Radioligand Therapy in Advanced Prostate Cancer Patients.

              (177)Lu-labeled PSMA-617 is a promising new therapeutic agent for radioligand therapy (RLT) of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Initiated by the German Society of Nuclear Medicine, a retrospective multicenter data analysis was started in 2015 to evaluate efficacy and safety of (177)Lu-PSMA-617 in a large cohort of patients.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                alexander.haug@meduniwien.ac.at
                Journal
                Eur J Nucl Med Mol Imaging
                Eur J Nucl Med Mol Imaging
                European Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
                Springer Berlin Heidelberg (Berlin/Heidelberg )
                1619-7070
                1619-7089
                30 October 2020
                30 October 2020
                2021
                : 48
                : 5
                : 1650-1657
                Affiliations
                [1 ]GRID grid.22937.3d, ISNI 0000 0000 9259 8492, Department of Biomedical Imaging and Image-Guided Therapy, Division of Nuclear Medicine, , Medical University of Vienna, ; Vienna, Austria
                [2 ]GRID grid.22937.3d, ISNI 0000 0000 9259 8492, Department of Urology, , Medical University of Vienna, ; Vienna, Austria
                [3 ]GRID grid.5386.8, ISNI 000000041936877X, Department of Urology, , Weill Cornell Medical College, ; New York, NY USA
                [4 ]GRID grid.4491.8, ISNI 0000 0004 1937 116X, Department of Urology, Second Faculty of Medicine, , Charles University, ; Prague, Czech Republic
                [5 ]GRID grid.448878.f, ISNI 0000 0001 2288 8774, Institute for Urology and Reproductive Health, , I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, ; Moscow, Russia
                [6 ]GRID grid.267313.2, ISNI 0000 0000 9482 7121, Department of Urology, , University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, ; Dallas, TX USA
                [7 ]GRID grid.499898.d, Center for Biomarker Research in Medicine, , CBmed GmbH, ; Graz, Austria
                [8 ]Ludwig Boltzmann Institute Applied Diagnostics, Vienna, Austria
                [9 ]GRID grid.22937.3d, ISNI 0000 0000 9259 8492, Christian Doppler Laboratory for Applied Metabolomics (CDL AM), , Medical University of Vienna, ; Vienna, Austria
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8308-6174
                Article
                5082
                10.1007/s00259-020-05082-5
                8113146
                33128131
                edb22953-26bf-4d66-8098-c46c31064c5e
                © The Author(s) 2020

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 17 June 2020
                : 18 October 2020
                Funding
                Funded by: Medical University of Vienna
                Categories
                Original Article
                Custom metadata
                © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021

                Radiology & Imaging
                psma-rlt,mcrpc,response prediction,survival prediction,psa
                Radiology & Imaging
                psma-rlt, mcrpc, response prediction, survival prediction, psa

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