Winter weather affects asp viper Vipera aspis population dynamics through susceptible juveniles

Climate influences a variety of ecological processes. These effects operate through local weather parameters such as temperature, wind, rain, snow, and ocean currents, as well as interactions among these. In the temperate zone, local variations in weather are often coupled over large geographic areas through the transient behavior of atmospheric planetary-scale waves. These variations drive temporally and spatially averaged exchanges of heat, momentum, and water vapor that ultimately determine growth, recruitment, and migration patterns. Recently, there have been several studies of the impact of large-scale climatic forcing on ecological systems. We review how two of the best-known climate phenomena-the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-affect ecological patterns and processes in both marine and terrestrial systems.

Variability in population growth rate is thought to have negative consequences for organism fitness. Theory for matrix population models predicts that variance in population growth rate should be the sum of the variance in each matrix entry times the squared sensitivity term for that matrix entry. I analyzed the stage-specific demography of 30 field populations from 17 published studies for pattern between the variance of a demographic term and its contribution to population growth. There were no instances in which a matrix entry both was highly variable and had a large effect on population growth rate; instead, correlations between estimates of temporal variance in a term and contribution to population growth (sensitivity or elasticity) were overwhelmingly negative. In addition, survivorship or growth sensitivities or elasticities always exceeded those of fecundity, implying that the former two terms always contributed more to population growth rate. These results suggest that variable life history stages tend to contribute relatively little to population growth rates because natural selection may alter life histories to minimize stages with both high sensitivity and high variation.

Recently, the results from several long-term individual-based population studies of ungulates have been published. One major conclusion is that the population dynamics of ungulates in predator-free environments is strongly influenced by a combination of stochastic variation in the environment, and population density. Both density dependence and environmental stochasticity operate through changes in life history traits, correlated with variation in body weight. This generates delays in the response of the population to changes in environment. In the absence of predation, a stable equilibrium is therefore unlikely to exist between an ungulate population and its food resources. This thorough understanding of the mechanisms generating population fluctuations suggests that studies of ungulates will provide an important source for examining effects of long-term changes in the environment, for instance, resulting from a climatic change.