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      Constructing cities, deconstructing scaling laws

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          Abstract

          Cities can be characterized and modelled through different urban measures. Consistency within these observables is crucial in order to advance towards a science of cities. Bettencourt et al. have proposed that many of these urban measures can be predicted through universal scaling laws. We develop a framework to consistently define cities, using commuting to work and population density thresholds, and construct thousands of realizations of systems of cities with different boundaries for England and Wales. These serve as a laboratory for the scaling analysis of a large set of urban indicators. The analysis shows that population size alone does not provide us enough information to describe or predict the state of a city as previously proposed, indicating that the expected scaling laws are not corroborated. We found that most urban indicators scale linearly with city size, regardless of the definition of the urban boundaries. However, when nonlinear correlations are present, the exponent fluctuates considerably.

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          Most cited references 11

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          A general model for the origin of allometric scaling laws in biology.

          Allometric scaling relations, including the 3/4 power law for metabolic rates, are characteristic of all organisms and are here derived from a general model that describes how essential materials are transported through space-filling fractal networks of branching tubes. The model assumes that the energy dissipated is minimized and that the terminal tubes do not vary with body size. It provides a complete analysis of scaling relations for mammalian circulatory systems that are in agreement with data. More generally, the model predicts structural and functional properties of vertebrate cardiovascular and respiratory systems, plant vascular systems, insect tracheal tubes, and other distribution networks.
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            Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities.

            Humanity has just crossed a major landmark in its history with the majority of people now living in cities. Cities have long been known to be society's predominant engine of innovation and wealth creation, yet they are also its main source of crime, pollution, and disease. The inexorable trend toward urbanization worldwide presents an urgent challenge for developing a predictive, quantitative theory of urban organization and sustainable development. Here we present empirical evidence indicating that the processes relating urbanization to economic development and knowledge creation are very general, being shared by all cities belonging to the same urban system and sustained across different nations and times. Many diverse properties of cities from patent production and personal income to electrical cable length are shown to be power law functions of population size with scaling exponents, beta, that fall into distinct universality classes. Quantities reflecting wealth creation and innovation have beta approximately 1.2 >1 (increasing returns), whereas those accounting for infrastructure display beta approximately 0.8 <1 (economies of scale). We predict that the pace of social life in the city increases with population size, in quantitative agreement with data, and we discuss how cities are similar to, and differ from, biological organisms, for which beta<1. Finally, we explore possible consequences of these scaling relations by deriving growth equations, which quantify the dramatic difference between growth fueled by innovation versus that driven by economies of scale. This difference suggests that, as population grows, major innovation cycles must be generated at a continually accelerating rate to sustain growth and avoid stagnation or collapse.
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              The origins of scaling in cities.

              Despite the increasing importance of cities in human societies, our ability to understand them scientifically and manage them in practice has remained limited. The greatest difficulties to any scientific approach to cities have resulted from their many interdependent facets, as social, economic, infrastructural, and spatial complex systems that exist in similar but changing forms over a huge range of scales. Here, I show how all cities may evolve according to a small set of basic principles that operate locally. A theoretical framework was developed to predict the average social, spatial, and infrastructural properties of cities as a set of scaling relations that apply to all urban systems. Confirmation of these predictions was observed for thousands of cities worldwide, from many urban systems at different levels of development. Measures of urban efficiency, capturing the balance between socioeconomic outputs and infrastructural costs, were shown to be independent of city size and might be a useful means to evaluate urban planning strategies.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                J R Soc Interface
                J R Soc Interface
                RSIF
                royinterface
                Journal of the Royal Society Interface
                The Royal Society
                1742-5689
                1742-5662
                6 January 2015
                6 January 2015
                : 12
                : 102
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), University College London , London, UK
                [2 ]Center for Advanced Modeling, The Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, MD 21209, USA
                [3 ]The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford , Oxford, UK
                [4 ]Santa Fe Institute , Santa Fe, MN 87501, USA
                [5 ]Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol , Bristol, UK
                Author notes
                [†]

                These authors contributed equally to this study.

                Article
                rsif20140745
                10.1098/rsif.2014.0745
                4277074
                25411405

                © 2014 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

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                1004
                69
                Research Articles
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                January 6, 2015

                Life sciences

                power-laws, scaling laws, urban indicators, city boundaries

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