Development and internal validation of a Nomogram for preoperative prediction of surgical treatment effect on cesarean section diverticulum

Abstract

Background

The aim of this study was to develop and validate an individualized score based on preoperative parameters to predict patient outcomes after vaginal repair of cesarean section diverticulum.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). Patients were enrolled between Jun 11, 2012, to May 27, 2016. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to construct the predictive model. Then, we generated a nomogram to assess the individualized risk of poor prognosis after operation. This prediction model included information from 167 eligible patients diagnosed with cesarean section diverticulum who underwent vaginal repair. Class-A healing group was defined as CSD patients who had menstruation duration of no more than 7 days and a thickness of the remaining muscular layer of no less than 5.8 mm after vaginal repair according to conferences. Others were included in the non-class-A healing group. A final nomogram was computed using a multivariable logistic regression model.

Results

The factors contained in the individualized prediction nomogram included the depth/ the thickness of the remaining muscular layer ratio, number of menstruation days before surgery, White blood cell and fibrinogen. This model demonstrated adequate discrimination and calibration (C-index = 0.718). There was a significant difference in the number of postmenstrual spotting days (12.98 ± 3.86 VS 14.46 ± 2.86, P = 0.022) and depth/ the thickness of the remaining muscular layer ratio (2.81 ± 1.54 VS 4.00 ± 3.09, P = 0.001) between two groups. Decision curve analysis showed that this nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusions

This cesarean section diverticulum score can predict the outcomes of cesarean section diverticulum and can be useful for counseling patients who are making treatment decisions.