Networks and Plant Disease Management: Concepts and Applications

The Internet, as well as many other networks, has a very complex connectivity recently modeled by the class of scale-free networks. This feature, which appears to be very efficient for a communications network, favors at the same time the spreading of computer viruses. We analyze real data from computer virus infections and find the average lifetime and prevalence of viral strains on the Internet. We define a dynamical model for the spreading of infections on scale-free networks, finding the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This new epidemiological framework rationalize data of computer viruses and could help in the understanding of other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

Some of the most striking and extreme consequences of rapid, long-distance aerial dispersal involve pathogens of crop plants. Long-distance dispersal of fungal spores by the wind can spread plant diseases across and even between continents and reestablish diseases in areas where host plants are seasonally absent. For such epidemics to occur, hosts that are susceptible to the same pathogen genotypes must be grown over wide areas, as is the case with many modern crops. The strongly stochastic nature of long-distance dispersal causes founder effects in pathogen populations, such that the genotypes that cause epidemics in new territories or on cultivars with previously effective resistance genes may be atypical. Similar but less extreme population dynamics may arise from long-distance aerial dispersal of other organisms, including plants, viruses, and fungal pathogens of humans.