The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables
from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter
and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people subjected to risk,
particularly noticed for the persons who are getting on, implies the use of an extrapolation
method for the mortality rates. The Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods constitute
twodimensional models, taking the year and the age into account to calculate the mortality
rates. The methods suggested are applied to a real data set. The prospective tables,
built in this way, allow to project the rates' evolution in the future, extrapolating
the temporal constituent. And then, it allows to compare this projection with the
evolution predicted for the French population in its entirety. You determine the best
method through the nearness of the smoothed rates in comparison with the raw rates
and essentially through the caution of these models for the life annuities' calculation.
The results stemed from these methods are too confronted with the mortality rates
obtained through a method of logistic fits.