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      Climate change and the world's river basins: anticipating management options

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          The Natural Flow Regime

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            Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.

            Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.
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              Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment.

              We examined the number of tropical cyclones and cyclone days as well as tropical cyclone intensity over the past 35 years, in an environment of increasing sea surface temperature. A large increase was seen in the number and proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 and 5. The largest increase occurred in the North Pacific, Indian, and Southwest Pacific Oceans, and the smallest percentage increase occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. These increases have taken place while the number of cyclones and cyclone days has decreased in all basins except the North Atlantic during the past decade.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
                Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
                Wiley-Blackwell
                1540-9295
                March 2008
                March 2008
                : 6
                : 2
                : 81-89
                10.1890/060148
                © 2008

                http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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                Self URI (article page): http://doi.wiley.com/10.1890/060148

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