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      Seasonal dynamics and potential drivers of ranavirus epidemics in wood frog populations

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      Oecologia

      Springer Science and Business Media LLC

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          Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Usinglme4

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            Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases.

            Seasonal variations in temperature, rainfall and resource availability are ubiquitous and can exert strong pressures on population dynamics. Infectious diseases provide some of the best-studied examples of the role of seasonality in shaping population fluctuations. In this paper, we review examples from human and wildlife disease systems to illustrate the challenges inherent in understanding the mechanisms and impacts of seasonal environmental drivers. Empirical evidence points to several biologically distinct mechanisms by which seasonality can impact host-pathogen interactions, including seasonal changes in host social behaviour and contact rates, variation in encounters with infective stages in the environment, annual pulses of host births and deaths and changes in host immune defences. Mathematical models and field observations show that the strength and mechanisms of seasonality can alter the spread and persistence of infectious diseases, and that population-level responses can range from simple annual cycles to more complex multiyear fluctuations. From an applied perspective, understanding the timing and causes of seasonality offers important insights into how parasite-host systems operate, how and when parasite control measures should be applied, and how disease risks will respond to anthropogenic climate change and altered patterns of seasonality. Finally, by focusing on well-studied examples of infectious diseases, we hope to highlight general insights that are relevant to other ecological interactions.
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              Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework.

              Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Oecologia
                Oecologia
                Springer Science and Business Media LLC
                0029-8549
                1432-1939
                December 2018
                October 22 2018
                December 2018
                : 188
                : 4
                : 1253-1262
                10.1007/s00442-018-4274-4
                © 2018

                http://www.springer.com/tdm

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