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      Spatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015

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          Abstract

          Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009–2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.

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          Most cited references26

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          Social Contagion and Innovation: Cohesion versus Structural Equivalence

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            Heterogeneities in the transmission of infectious agents: implications for the design of control programs.

            From an analysis of the distributions of measures of transmission rates among hosts, we identify an empirical relationship suggesting that, typically, 20% of the host population contributes at least 80% of the net transmission potential, as measured by the basic reproduction number, R0. This is an example of a statistical pattern known as the 20/80 rule. The rule applies to a variety of disease systems, including vector-borne parasites and sexually transmitted pathogens. The rule implies that control programs targeted at the "core" 20% group are potentially highly effective and, conversely, that programs that fail to reach all of this group will be much less effective than expected in reducing levels of infection in the population as a whole.
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              The effects of family and community violence on children.

              This review examines theoretical and empirical literature on children's reactions to three types of violence--child maltreatment, community violence, and interparental violence. In addition to describing internalizing and externalizing problems associated with exposure to violence, this review identifies ways that violence can disrupt typical developmental trajectories through psychobiological effects, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), cognitive consequences, and peer problems. Methodological challenges in this literature include high rates of co-occurrence among types of violence exposure, co-occurrence of violence with other serious life adversities, heterogeneity in the frequency, severity, age of onset, and chronicity of exposure, and difficulties in making causal inferences. A developmental psychopathology perspective focuses attention on how violence may have different effects at different ages and may compromise children's abilities to face normal developmental challenges. Emphasis is placed on the variability of children's reactions to violence, on outcomes that go beyond diagnosable disorders, and on variables that mediate and moderate children's reactions to violence.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                20 March 2017
                2017
                : 12
                : 3
                : e0173001
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Syracuse University Department of Public Health, Food Studies and Nutrition, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
                [2 ]Syracuse University Department of Anthropology, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
                [3 ]Street Addiction Institute, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
                [4 ]Syracuse City Police Department, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
                Stony Brook University, Graduate Program in Public Health, UNITED STATES
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                • Conceptualization: DL SL RR.

                • Data curation: KB.

                • Formal analysis: DL.

                • Investigation: KB.

                • Methodology: DL KB.

                • Project administration: SL DL.

                • Supervision: SL DL.

                • Visualization: DL TJB AHE KB.

                • Writing – original draft: DL.

                • Writing – review & editing: DL TJB SL AHE RR KB.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1876-6536
                Article
                PONE-D-16-41583
                10.1371/journal.pone.0173001
                5358737
                28319125
                f559775d-9bf8-4a39-bf4a-d7403fac179a
                © 2017 Larsen et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 18 October 2016
                : 13 February 2017
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 2, Pages: 10
                Funding
                The authors received no specific funding for this work.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Research Design
                Survey Research
                Census
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Public and Occupational Health
                Traumatic Injury Risk Factors
                Violent Crime
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Criminology
                Crime
                Violent Crime
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Criminology
                Crime
                Homicide
                People and places
                Population groupings
                Ethnicities
                African Americans
                People and Places
                Population Groupings
                Ethnicities
                Hispanic People
                Social Sciences
                Sociology
                Criminology
                Police
                People and Places
                Population Groupings
                Professions
                Police
                People and places
                Geographical locations
                North America
                United States
                New York
                Medicine and Health Sciences
                Critical Care and Emergency Medicine
                Trauma Medicine
                Traumatic Injury
                Custom metadata
                These data were analyzed with permission from the Syracuse City Police Department. Detective Kim Brundage is the point of contact for crime statistics ( kbrundage@ 123456syracusepolice.org ), and can inform interested parties on the procedures for acquiring data. Alternatively the office for the chief of police (currently Chief Fowler) can be reached at +1-315-442-5250.

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