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      Long-Term Epidemiologic Prediction of Coronary Disease

      a , b

      Cardiology

      S. Karger AG

      Framingham Study, Preventive management, Risk factors, atherogenic, Predictability

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          Abstract

          Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is a complex problem involving lipid deposition, pressure, rheologic forces, carbohydrate tolerance and thrombogenesis. The major contributors identified through epidemiologic research include atherogenic personal attributes, living habits which promote them, signs of a compromised coronary circulation and host susceptibility to these risk factors. Of the atherogenic risk attributes, such as blood lipids, blood pressure, glucose tolerance and fibrinogen, each independently contributes to risk, and the risk associated with any one is compounded by the presence of the others. The risk associated with hypertension, hyperlipidemia or diabetes varies widely depending on the level of associated risk factors. Also, at a given level of total cholesterol, risk is greatly affected by the total/HDL cholesterol ratio, which provides a practical means for assessing the two-way traffic of cholesterol. In addition, living habits, such as cigarette smoking or lack of exercise, can independently affect the risk associated with any of the atherogenic traits. These living habits, obesity and diet can also affect the level of atherogenic risk factors and must be taken into account in assessing risk and implementing preventive measures. Finally, preclinical indicators of silent myocardial ischemia greatly augment the risk associated with a poor cardiovascular risk profile. Hence, ECG left ventricular hypertrophy, blocked intraventricular conduction, repolarization abnormalities and abnormal response to exercise on monitoring must be taken into consideration. Optimal risk predictions require a quantitative synthesis of risk factors into a composite estimate. Handbooks, hand calculators and PC software have been devised for office use based on multiple logistic risk formulations. These have been shown to accurately predict disease risk in a variety of American population samples, in elderly as well as young coronary candidates. Preventive management as well as risk estimation should be multifactorial if optimal results are to be achieved. Preventive strategies should include public health measures to alter the ecology so as to shift the distribution of risk factors to a more favorable level, health education to enable people to protect their own health and preventive medicine for high-risk candidates. Greater skill must be developed to carry out such interventions. In selecting drugs to correct hypertension, diabetes and lipid disorders, it is important to choose agents which do not adversely affect the composite risk profile.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          CRD
          Cardiology
          10.1159/issn.0008-6312
          Cardiology
          S. Karger AG
          978-3-8055-5790-0
          978-3-318-01585-0
          0008-6312
          1421-9751
          1993
          1993
          14 November 2008
          : 82
          : 2-3
          : 137-152
          Affiliations
          aSection of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Boston University School of Medicine, Evans Memorial Department of Clinical Research, University Hospital at Boston University Medical Center, Boston, Mass., USA; bFramingham Study and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institutes, Framingham, Mass., USA
          Article
          175864 Cardiology 1993;82:137–152
          10.1159/000175864
          8324776
          © 1993 S. Karger AG, Basel

          Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

          Page count
          Pages: 16
          Categories
          Paper

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