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      Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market.

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          Abstract

          Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successful than average, suggesting that "the best" alternatives are qualitatively different from "the rest"; yet experts routinely fail to predict which products will succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally, by creating an artificial "music market" in which 14,341 participants downloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledge of previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength of social influence increased both inequality and unpredictability of success. Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
          1095-9203
          0036-8075
          Feb 10 2006
          : 311
          : 5762
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Department of Sociology, 413 Fayerweather Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA. mjs2105@columbia.edu
          Article
          311/5762/854
          10.1126/science.1121066
          16469928
          f59be8e5-d619-4453-a648-1a18fc708a60
          History

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