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      Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

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          Abstract

          Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr −1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m −2 (23–87 mW m −2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m −2 (38–139 mW m −2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO 2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Atmos Environ (1994)
                Atmos Environ (1994)
                Atmospheric Environment (Oxford, England : 1994)
                Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
                1352-2310
                1352-2310
                19 April 2009
                July 2009
                19 April 2009
                : 43
                : 22
                : 3520-3537
                Affiliations
                [a ]Dalton Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester M1 5GD, United Kingdom
                [b ]NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA
                [c ]School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
                [d ]Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, Aviation Directorate, United Kingdom
                [e ]Natuur en Milieu, Donkerstraat 17, Utrecht, The Netherlands
                [f ]Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author. d.s.Lee@ 123456mmu.ac.uk
                Article
                S1352-2310(09)00357-4
                10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.024
                7185790
                f630cd95-a0a9-4d86-adcb-146fa0038bc8
                Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 19 November 2008
                : 7 April 2009
                : 8 April 2009
                Categories
                Article

                aviation,aviation emissions,aviation trends,climate change,radiative forcing,contrails,aviation-induced cirrus,ipcc,ar4,climate change mitigation,climate change adaptation

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