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      Can the Onset of Atrophic Age-Related Macular Degeneration Be an Acceptable Endpoint for Preventative Trials?

      a , b , * , a , b

      Ophthalmologica

      S. Karger AG

      Age-related macular degeneration, Geographic atrophy, Endpoints, Trials

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          Abstract

          The slowly progressive nature of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) means that establishing the efficacy of novel preventative treatments aiming to slow progression of disease, remains challenging, and where earlier endpoints are needed to improve their feasibility. This review examines whether the onset of atrophic AMD, as seen as anatomical signs on optical coherence tomography termed nascent geographic atrophy, could act as a useful surrogate endpoint for early intervention trials.

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          Most cited references 28

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          Is Open Access

          Global prevalence of age-related macular degeneration and disease burden projection for 2020 and 2040: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

           Wan Wong,  Xinyi Su,  Xiang Li (2014)
          Numerous population-based studies of age-related macular degeneration have been reported around the world, with the results of some studies suggesting racial or ethnic differences in disease prevalence. Integrating these resources to provide summarised data to establish worldwide prevalence and to project the number of people with age-related macular degeneration from 2020 to 2040 would be a useful guide for global strategies. We did a systematic literature review to identify all population-based studies of age-related macular degeneration published before May, 2013. Only studies using retinal photographs and standardised grading classifications (the Wisconsin age-related maculopathy grading system, the international classification for age-related macular degeneration, or the Rotterdam staging system) were included. Hierarchical Bayesian approaches were used to estimate the pooled prevalence, the 95% credible intervals (CrI), and to examine the difference in prevalence by ethnicity (European, African, Hispanic, Asian) and region (Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, and Oceania). UN World Population Prospects were used to project the number of people affected in 2014 and 2040. Bayes factor was calculated as a measure of statistical evidence, with a score above three indicating substantial evidence. Analysis of 129,664 individuals (aged 30-97 years), with 12,727 cases from 39 studies, showed the pooled prevalence (mapped to an age range of 45-85 years) of early, late, and any age-related macular degeneration to be 8.01% (95% CrI 3.98-15.49), 0.37% (0.18-0.77), and 8.69% (4.26-17.40), respectively. We found a higher prevalence of early and any age-related macular degeneration in Europeans than in Asians (early: 11.2% vs 6.8%, Bayes factor 3.9; any: 12.3% vs 7.4%, Bayes factor 4.3), and early, late, and any age-related macular degeneration to be more prevalent in Europeans than in Africans (early: 11.2% vs 7.1%, Bayes factor 12.2; late: 0.5% vs 0.3%, 3.7; any: 12.3% vs 7.5%, 31.3). There was no difference in prevalence between Asians and Africans (all Bayes factors <1). Europeans had a higher prevalence of geographic atrophy subtype (1.11%, 95% CrI 0.53-2.08) than Africans (0.14%, 0.04-0.45), Asians (0.21%, 0.04-0.87), and Hispanics (0.16%, 0.05-0.46). Between geographical regions, cases of early and any age-related macular degeneration were less prevalent in Asia than in Europe and North America (early: 6.3% vs 14.3% and 12.8% [Bayes factor 2.3 and 7.6]; any: 6.9% vs 18.3% and 14.3% [3.0 and 3.8]). No significant gender effect was noted in prevalence (Bayes factor <1.0). The projected number of people with age-related macular degeneration in 2020 is 196 million (95% CrI 140-261), increasing to 288 million in 2040 (205-399). These estimates indicate the substantial global burden of age-related macular degeneration. Summarised data provide information for understanding the effect of the condition and provide data towards designing eye-care strategies and health services around the world. National Medical Research Council, Singapore. Copyright © 2014 Wong et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by .. All rights reserved.
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            Surrogate end points in clinical trials: are we being misled?

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              A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Clinical Trial of High-Dose Supplementation With Vitamins C and E, Beta Carotene, and Zinc for Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Vision Loss

              (2001)
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                OPH
                Ophthalmologica
                10.1159/issn.0030-3755
                Ophthalmologica
                S. Karger AG
                0030-3755
                1423-0267
                2020
                December 2020
                17 August 2020
                : 243
                : 6
                : 399-403
                Affiliations
                aCentre for Eye Research Australia, Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital, East Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
                bOphthalmology, Department of Surgery, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
                Author notes
                *Zhichao Wu, Centre for Eye Research Australia, Level 7, 32 Gisborne Street, East Melbourne, VIC 3002 (Australia), wu.z@unimelb.edu.au
                Article
                510887 Ophthalmologica 2020;243:399–403
                10.1159/000510887
                32805732
                © 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel

                Copyright: All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated into other languages, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, microcopying, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Drug Dosage: The authors and the publisher have exerted every effort to ensure that drug selection and dosage set forth in this text are in accord with current recommendations and practice at the time of publication. However, in view of ongoing research, changes in government regulations, and the constant flow of information relating to drug therapy and drug reactions, the reader is urged to check the package insert for each drug for any changes in indications and dosage and for added warnings and precautions. This is particularly important when the recommended agent is a new and/or infrequently employed drug. Disclaimer: The statements, opinions and data contained in this publication are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publishers and the editor(s). The appearance of advertisements or/and product references in the publication is not a warranty, endorsement, or approval of the products or services advertised or of their effectiveness, quality or safety. The publisher and the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to persons or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content or advertisements.

                Page count
                Figures: 1, Pages: 5
                Categories
                Review Article

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