National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis

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Abstract

Previous estimates have highlighted a large global burden of stillbirths, with an absence of reliable data from regions where most stillbirths occur. The Every Newborn Action Plan (ENAP) targets national stillbirth rates (SBRs) of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births by 2030. We estimate SBRs and numbers for 195 countries, including trends from 2000 to 2015.

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Most cited references 27

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National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.

Hannah Blencowe, Simon Cousens, Mikkel Z Oestergaard … (2012)

Preterm birth is the second largest direct cause of child deaths in children younger than 5 years. Yet, data regarding preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation) are not routinely collected by UN agencies, and no systematic country estimates nor time trend analyses have been done. We report worldwide, regional, and national estimates of preterm birth rates for 184 countries in 2010 with time trends for selected countries, and provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. We assessed various data sources according to prespecified inclusion criteria. National Registries (563 datapoints, 51 countries), Reproductive Health Surveys (13 datapoints, eight countries), and studies identified through systematic searches and unpublished data (162 datapoints, 40 countries) were included. 55 countries submitted additional data during WHO's country consultation process. For 13 countries with adequate quality and quantity of data, we estimated preterm birth rates using country-level loess regression for 2010. For 171 countries, two regional multilevel statistical models were developed to estimate preterm birth rates for 2010. We estimated time trends from 1990 to 2010 for 65 countries with reliable time trend data and more than 10,000 livebirths per year. We calculated uncertainty ranges for all countries. In 2010, an estimated 14·9 million babies (uncertainty range 12·3-18·1 million) were born preterm, 11·1% of all livebirths worldwide, ranging from about 5% in several European countries to 18% in some African countries. More than 60% of preterm babies were born in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 52% of the global livebirths occur. Preterm birth also affects rich countries, for example, USA has high rates and is one of the ten countries with the highest numbers of preterm births. Of the 65 countries with estimated time trends, only three (Croatia, Ecuador, and Estonia), had reduced preterm birth rates 1990-2010. The burden of preterm birth is substantial and is increasing in those regions with reliable data. Improved recording of all pregnancy outcomes and standard application of preterm definitions is important. We recommend the addition of a data-quality indicator of the per cent of all live preterm births that are under 28 weeks' gestation. Distinguishing preterm births that are spontaneous from those that are provider-initiated is important to monitor trends associated with increased caesarean sections. Rapid scale up of basic interventions could accelerate progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival and beyond. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grants to Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme; March of Dimes; the Partnership for Maternal Newborn and Childe Health; and WHO, Department of Reproductive Health and Research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Every Newborn: progress, priorities, and potential beyond survival.

Joy E. Lawn, Hannah Blencowe, Shefali Oza … (2014)

In this Series paper, we review trends since the 2005 Lancet Series on Neonatal Survival to inform acceleration of progress for newborn health post-2015. On the basis of multicountry analyses and multi-stakeholder consultations, we propose national targets for 2035 of no more than 10 stillbirths per 1000 total births, and no more than 10 neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths, compatible with the under-5 mortality targets of no more than 20 per 1000 livebirths. We also give targets for 2030. Reduction of neonatal mortality has been slower than that for maternal and child (1-59 months) mortality, slowest in the highest burden countries, especially in Africa, and reduction is even slower for stillbirth rates. Birth is the time of highest risk, when more than 40% of maternal deaths (total about 290,000) and stillbirths or neonatal deaths (5·5 million) occur every year. These deaths happen rapidly, needing a rapid response by health-care workers. The 2·9 million annual neonatal deaths worldwide are attributable to three main causes: infections (0·6 million), intrapartum conditions (0·7 million), and preterm birth complications (1·0 million). Boys have a higher biological risk of neonatal death, but girls often have a higher social risk. Small size at birth--due to preterm birth or small-for-gestational-age (SGA), or both--is the biggest risk factor for more than 80% of neonatal deaths and increases risk of post-neonatal mortality, growth failure, and adult-onset non-communicable diseases. South Asia has the highest SGA rates and sub-Saharan Africa has the highest preterm birth rates. Babies who are term SGA low birthweight (10·4 million in these regions) are at risk of stunting and adult-onset metabolic conditions. 15 million preterm births, especially of those younger than 32 weeks' gestation, are at the highest risk of neonatal death, with ongoing post-neonatal mortality risk, and important risk of long-term neurodevelopmental impairment, stunting, and non-communicable conditions. 4 million neonates annually have other life-threatening or disabling conditions including intrapartum-related brain injury, severe bacterial infections, or pathological jaundice. Half of the world's newborn babies do not get a birth certificate, and most neonatal deaths and almost all stillbirths have no death certificate. To count deaths is crucial to change them. Failure to improve birth outcomes by 2035 will result in an estimated 116 million deaths, 99 million survivors with disability or lost development potential, and millions of adults at increased risk of non-communicable diseases after low birthweight. In the post-2015 era, improvements in child survival, development, and human capital depend on ensuring a healthy start for every newborn baby--the citizens and workforce of the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Stillbirths: rates, risk factors, and acceleration towards 2030

Joy E Lawn, Hannah Blencowe, Peter Waiswa … (2016)

An estimated 2.6 million third trimester stillbirths occurred in 2015 (uncertainty range 2.4-3.0 million). The number of stillbirths has reduced more slowly than has maternal mortality or mortality in children younger than 5 years, which were explicitly targeted in the Millennium Development Goals. The Every Newborn Action Plan has the target of 12 or fewer stillbirths per 1000 births in every country by 2030. 94 mainly high-income countries and upper middle-income countries have already met this target, although with noticeable disparities. At least 56 countries, particularly in Africa and in areas affected by conflict, will have to more than double present progress to reach this target. Most (98%) stillbirths are in low-income and middle-income countries. Improved care at birth is essential to prevent 1.3 million (uncertainty range 1.2-1.6 million) intrapartum stillbirths, end preventable maternal and neonatal deaths, and improve child development. Estimates for stillbirth causation are impeded by various classification systems, but for 18 countries with reliable data, congenital abnormalities account for a median of only 7.4% of stillbirths. Many disorders associated with stillbirths are potentially modifiable and often coexist, such as maternal infections (population attributable fraction: malaria 8.0% and syphilis 7.7%), non-communicable diseases, nutrition and lifestyle factors (each about 10%), and maternal age older than 35 years (6.7%). Prolonged pregnancies contribute to 14.0% of stillbirths. Causal pathways for stillbirth frequently involve impaired placental function, either with fetal growth restriction or preterm labour, or both. Two-thirds of newborns have their births registered. However, less than 5% of neonatal deaths and even fewer stillbirths have death registration. Records and registrations of all births, stillbirths, neonatal, and maternal deaths in a health facility would substantially increase data availability. Improved data alone will not save lives but provide a way to target interventions to reach more than 7000 women every day worldwide who experience the reality of stillbirth.

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Journal

Title: The Lancet Global Health

Abbreviated Title: The Lancet Global Health

Publisher: Elsevier BV

ISSN (Print): 2214109X

Publication date Created: February 2016

Publication date (Print): February 2016

Volume: 4

Issue: 2

Pages: e98-e108

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DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00275-2

PubMed ID: 26795602

SO-VID: f8373122-bb17-40a8-bf4b-0774580ff794

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https://www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

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Self URI (article page): https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214109X15002752

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2015, with trends from 2000: a systematic analysis

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UCL: UN SDG 03 Good Health and Well-Being

Most cited references 27

National, regional, and worldwide estimates of preterm birth rates in the year 2010 with time trends since 1990 for selected countries: a systematic analysis and implications.

Every Newborn: progress, priorities, and potential beyond survival.

Stillbirths: rates, risk factors, and acceleration towards 2030

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