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      Response of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO 2 under a Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi‐arid environment

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          Abstract

          The response of wheat crops to elevated CO 2 ( eCO 2) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free‐Air CO 2 Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO 2 by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi‐arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha −1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha −1, respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO 2 (from 365 to 550 μmol mol −1 CO 2) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm ( P = 0.10) by eCO 2, increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM‐Wheat, APSIM‐Nwheat, CAT‐Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARYCONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO 2 was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency ( RUE) or transpiration efficiency ( TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO 2. However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO 2 to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO 2 under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO 2, water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.

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          Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations.

          Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.
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            How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

            Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2 ], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per °C. Doubling [CO2 ] from 360 to 720 μmol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2 ] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2 ] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
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              Modelling plant responses to elevated CO2: how important is leaf area index?

              The problem of increasing CO(2) concentration [CO(2)] and associated climate change has generated much interest in modelling effects of [CO(2)] on plants. While variation in growth and productivity is closely related to the amount of intercepted radiation, largely determined by leaf area index (LAI), effects of elevated [CO(2)] on growth are primarily via stimulation of leaf photosynthesis. Variability in LAI depends on climatic and growing conditions including [CO(2)] concentration and can be high, as is known for agricultural crops which are specifically emphasized in this report. However, modelling photosynthesis has received much attention and photosynthesis is often represented inadequately detailed in plant productivity models. Less emphasis has been placed on the modelling of leaf area dynamics, and relationships between plant growth, elevated [CO(2)] and LAI are not well understood. This Botanical Briefing aims at clarifying the relative importance of LAI for canopy assimilation and growth in biomass under conditions of rising [CO(2)] and discusses related implications for process-based modelling.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Glob Chang Biol
                Glob Chang Biol
                10.1111/(ISSN)1365-2486
                GCB
                Global Change Biology
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                1354-1013
                1365-2486
                06 February 2015
                July 2015
                : 21
                : 7 ( doiID: 10.1111/gcb.2015.21.issue-7 )
                : 2670-2686
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ]Department of Environment and Primary Industries Horsham Vic. 3401Australia
                [ 2 ]Department of Environment and Primary Industries Rutherglen Vic. 3658Australia
                [ 3 ]CSIRO Agriculture Toowoomba Qld 4350Australia
                [ 4 ]University of Florida Gainesville FL 32611‐0570USA
                [ 5 ]Washington State University Pullman WA 99164‐6120USA
                [ 6 ]Michigan State University East Lansing MI 48824USA
                [ 7 ] Plant Functional Biology & Climate ChangeUniversity of Technology Sydney Sydney NSWAustralia
                [ 8 ]Department of Agriculture and Forestry Western Australia South Perth WA 6151Australia
                [ 9 ]CSIRO Agriculture Floreat WA 6014Australia
                [ 10 ] School of Plant BiologyThe University of Western Australia 35 Stirling Hwy Crawley WA 6009Australia
                [ 11 ]Present address: The James Hutton Institute Invergowrie DundeeUK
                Author notes
                [*] [* ]Correspondence: Garry J. O'Leary, tel. + 61 353622111, fax + 61 353622187, e‐mail: garry.o'leary@ 123456depi.vic.gov.au or gjoleary@ 123456yahoo.com
                Article
                GCB12830
                10.1111/gcb.12830
                5016785
                25482824
                f8bfd286-5ef4-46e6-9b7f-bc5eb0d3a519
                © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

                This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.

                History
                : 27 October 2014
                : 28 November 2014
                Page count
                Pages: 17
                Funding
                Funded by: Victorian State Government Department of Environment and Primary Industries
                Funded by: The University of Melbourne
                Funded by: Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation
                Funded by: Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
                Funded by: Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH‐PNA)
                Funded by: US National Institute for Food and Agriculture
                Award ID: 2011‐68002‐30191
                Categories
                Primary Research Article
                Primary Research Articles
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                gcb12830
                July 2015
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:4.9.4 mode:remove_FC converted:09.09.2016

                climate change,elevated co2,modelling,radiation use efficiency,transpiration efficiency

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