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      Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060

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          Abstract

          Background

          In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060.

          Methods

          A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection.

          Results

          The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases.

          Conclusions

          By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.

          Electronic supplementary material

          The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references 12

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          Impact of recent increase in incidence on future diabetes burden: U.S., 2005-2050.

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            The 10-Year Cost-Effectiveness of Lifestyle Intervention or Metformin for Diabetes Prevention

              (2012)
            OBJECTIVE The Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) and its Outcomes Study (DPPOS) demonstrated that either intensive lifestyle intervention or metformin could prevent type 2 diabetes in high-risk adults for at least 10 years after randomization. We report the 10-year within-trial cost-effectiveness of the interventions. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Data on resource utilization, cost, and quality of life were collected prospectively. Economic analyses were performed from health system and societal perspectives. RESULTS Over 10 years, the cumulative, undiscounted per capita direct medical costs of the interventions, as implemented during the DPP, were greater for lifestyle ($4,601) than metformin ($2,300) or placebo ($769). The cumulative direct medical costs of care outside the DPP/DPPOS were least for lifestyle ($24,563 lifestyle vs. $25,616 metformin vs. $27,468 placebo). The cumulative, combined total direct medical costs were greatest for lifestyle and least for metformin ($29,164 lifestyle vs. $27,915 metformin vs. $28,236 placebo). The cumulative quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accrued over 10 years were greater for lifestyle (6.81) than metformin (6.69) or placebo (6.67). When costs and outcomes were discounted at 3%, lifestyle cost $10,037 per QALY, and metformin had slightly lower costs and nearly the same QALYs as placebo. CONCLUSIONS Over 10 years, from a payer perspective, lifestyle was cost-effective and metformin was marginally cost-saving compared with placebo. Investment in lifestyle and metformin interventions for diabetes prevention in high-risk adults provides good value for the money spent.
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              Trends in Death Rates Among U.S. Adults With and Without Diabetes Between 1997 and 2006

              OBJECTIVE To determine whether all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates declined between 1997 and 2006, a period of continued advances in treatment approaches and risk factor control, among U.S. adults with and without diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We compared 3-year death rates of four consecutive nationally representative samples (1997–1998, 1999–2000, 2001–2002, and 2003–2004) of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using data from the National Health Interview Surveys linked to National Death Index. RESULTS Among diabetic adults, the CVD death rate declined by 40% (95% CI 23–54) and all-cause mortality declined by 23% (10–35) between the earliest and latest samples. There was no difference in the rates of decline in mortality between diabetic men and women. The excess CVD mortality rate associated with diabetes (i.e., compared with nondiabetic adults) decreased by 60% (from 5.8 to 2.3 CVD deaths per 1,000) while the excess all-cause mortality rate declined by 44% (from 10.8 to 6.1 deaths per 1,000). CONCLUSIONS Death rates among both U.S. men and women with diabetes declined substantially between 1997 and 2006, reducing the absolute difference between adults with and without diabetes. These encouraging findings, however, suggest that diabetes prevalence is likely to rise in the future if diabetes incidence is not curtailed.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                linji78@hotmail.com
                tedintucker@gmail.com
                ycc1@cdc.gov
                Xiaohui.zhuo@gmail.com
                paz2@cdc.gov
                edg7@cdc.gov
                770-488-8395 , dbr6@cdc.gov
                Journal
                Popul Health Metr
                Popul Health Metr
                Population Health Metrics
                BioMed Central (London )
                1478-7954
                15 June 2018
                15 June 2018
                2018
                : 16
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2163 0069, GRID grid.416738.f, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Diabetes Translation, ; Atlanta, USA
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2260 0793, GRID grid.417993.1, Merck Research Laboratories, ; North Wales, USA
                Article
                166
                10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4
                6003101
                29903012
                © The Author(s). 2018

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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                © The Author(s) 2018

                Health & Social care

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