Impact of weight and weight change on normalization of prediabetes and on persistence of normal glucose tolerance in an older population: the KORA S4/F4 study

To examine ethnic differences in risk of type 2 diabetes, taking dietary and lifestyle risk factors into account. A prospective (1980-2000) cohort (from The Nurses' Health Study) including 78,419 apparently healthy women (75,584 whites, 801 Asians, 613 Hispanics, and 1,421 blacks) was studied. Detailed dietary and lifestyle information for each participant was repeatedly collected every 4 years. During 1,294,799 person-years of follow-up, we documented 3,844 incident cases of diabetes. Compared with whites, the age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) were 1.43 (95% CI 1.08-1.90) for Asians, 1.76 (1.32-2.34) for Hispanics, and 2.18 (1.82-2.61) for blacks. After adjustment for BMI, the RRs changed to 2.26 (1.70-2.99) for Asians, 1.86 (1.40-2.47) for Hispanics, and 1.34 (1.12-1.61) for blacks. For each 5-unit increment in BMI, the multivariate RR of diabetes was 2.36 (1.83-3.04) for Asians, 2.21 (1.75-2.79) for Hispanics, 1.96 (1.93-2.00) for whites, and 1.55 (1.36-1.77) for blacks (P for interaction <0.001). For each 5-kg weight gain between age 18 and the year 1980, the risk of diabetes was increased by 84% (95% CI 58-114) for Asians, 44% (26-63) for Hispanics, 38% (28-49) for blacks, and 37% (35-38%) for whites. A healthy diet high in cereal fiber and polyunsaturated fat and low in trans fat and glycemic load was more strongly associated with a lower risk of diabetes among minorities (RR 0.54 [95% CI 0.39-0.73]) than among whites (0.77 [0.72-0.84]). The risk of diabetes is significantly higher among Asians, Hispanics, and blacks than among whites before and after taking into account differences in BMI. Weight gain is particularly detrimental for Asians. Our data suggest that the inverse association of a healthy diet with diabetes is stronger for minorities than for whites.

To determine the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and to examine the effect of different cut-points for impaired fasting glucose (IFG) on diabetes incidence. Population-based longitudinal study (1990-2000) with clinical, anthropometric and biochemical measurements, including an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), in 1040 non-diabetic adults aged 40-69 years at baseline. Baseline glucose status was defined as normoglycaemia < 5.6, IFG-lower 5.6-6.0 and IFG-original 6.1-6.9 mmol/l. The all-IFG group included fasting glucose values of 5.6-6.9 mmol/l. The 10-year cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.3 per 1000 person-years. Diabetes incidence was 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2, 4.8], 6.2 (4.0, 9.8) and 17.5 (12.5, 24.5) per 1000 person-years in those with normoglycaemia, IFG-lower and IFG-original, respectively. Compared with normoglycaemia, the age/sex-adjusted risk [hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI] for incident diabetes was greatest in the IFG-original category (HR 6.9; 3.1, 15.2) and increased to a lesser degree in the IFG-lower (HR 2.5; 1.1, 5.7) and all-IFG categories (HR 4.1; 1.9, 8.7). When adjusted for confounding factors, the magnitude and direction of associations persisted, with HR 1.9, 4.4 and 2.9, for the categories IFG-lower, IFG-original and all-IFG, respectively. Diabetes incidence is more strongly related to IFG defined as fasting glucose between 6.1 and 6.9 mmol/l than to the lower category of 5.6-6.0 mmol/l, or entire range of 5.6-6.9 mmol/l. Future studies should examine the association of IFG with cardiovascular outcomes, but for diabetes risk our study supports the use of the IFG cut-point at 6.1 mmol/l.

Although previous studies have linked obesity to diabetes, the risks associated with weight gain or changes in body fat distribution have not been fully elucidated. The authors therefore prospectively examined the relations between changes in body weight and body fat distribution (1986-1996) and the subsequent risk of diabetes (1996-2000) among 22,171 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Weight gain was monotonically related to risk, and for every kilogram of weight gained, risk increased by 7.3%. A gain in abdominal fat was positively associated with risk, independent of the risk associated with weight change. Compared with men who had a stable waist, men who increased waist circumference by 14.6 cm or more had 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 2.8) times the risk of diabetes after controlling for weight gain. In contrast, men who lost more than 4.1 cm in hip girth had 1.5 (95% confidence interval: 1.0, 2.3) times the risk of diabetes compared with men with stable hip circumference. Fifty-six percent of the cases of diabetes in this cohort could be attributed to weight gain greater than 7 kg, and 20 percent of the cases could be attributed to a waist gain exceeding 2.5 cm. Our findings underscore the critical importance of maintaining weight and waist to reduce the risk of diabetes.