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      The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts.

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          Abstract

          Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to 'barrens' when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs.

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          Most cited references48

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          An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design

          The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) will produce a state-of-the- art multimodel dataset designed to advance our knowledge of climate variability and climate change. Researchers worldwide are analyzing the model output and will produce results likely to underlie the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Unprecedented in scale and attracting interest from all major climate modeling groups, CMIP5 includes “long term” simulations of twentieth-century climate and projections for the twenty-first century and beyond. Conventional atmosphere–ocean global climate models and Earth system models of intermediate complexity are for the first time being joined by more recently developed Earth system models under an experiment design that allows both types of models to be compared to observations on an equal footing. Besides the longterm experiments, CMIP5 calls for an entirely new suite of “near term” simulations focusing on recent decades and the future to year 2035. These “decadal predictions” are initialized based on observations and will be used to explore the predictability of climate and to assess the forecast system's predictive skill. The CMIP5 experiment design also allows for participation of stand-alone atmospheric models and includes a variety of idealized experiments that will improve understanding of the range of model responses found in the more complex and realistic simulations. An exceptionally comprehensive set of model output is being collected and made freely available to researchers through an integrated but distributed data archive. For researchers unfamiliar with climate models, the limitations of the models and experiment design are described.
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            Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order

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              Rising to the challenge of sustaining coral reef resilience.

              Phase-shifts from one persistent assemblage of species to another have become increasingly commonplace on coral reefs and in many other ecosystems due to escalating human impacts. Coral reef science, monitoring and global assessments have focused mainly on producing detailed descriptions of reef decline, and continue to pay insufficient attention to the underlying processes causing degradation. A more productive way forward is to harness new theoretical insights and empirical information on why some reefs degrade and others do not. Learning how to avoid undesirable phase-shifts, and how to reverse them when they occur, requires an urgent reform of scientific approaches, policies, governance structures and coral reef management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Proc. Biol. Sci.
                Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society
                1471-2954
                0962-8452
                Aug 22 2014
                : 281
                : 1789
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia a.verges@unsw.edu.au.
                [2 ] Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia Advanced Environmental Biotechnology Centre, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore 637551, Republic of Singapore.
                [3 ] School of Biology and Aquatic Chemical Ecology Center, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA.
                [4 ] Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia.
                [5 ] Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Evolution and Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia.
                [6 ] Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CSIC, Blanes, Girona 17300, Spain.
                [7 ] Dauphin Island Sea Laboratory and University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688-0002, USA.
                [8 ] Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia School of the Environment, University of Technology Sydney, Broadway, New South Wales 2007, Australia.
                [9 ] Department of Primary Industries, NSW Fisheries, PO Box 4321, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales 2450, Australia.
                [10 ] Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia School of Biological Sciences, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia.
                [11 ] UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
                [12 ] Centre for Marine Bio-Innovation, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia.
                [13 ] Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, North Ryde, New South Wales 2109, Australia.
                [14 ] Marine Spatial Ecology Laboratory, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
                [15 ] Graduate School of Kuroshio Science, Kochi University, Kochi 783-8502, Japan.
                [16 ] School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia Sydney Institute of Marine Sciences, Chowder Bay Road, Mosman, New South Wales 2088, Australia.
                [17 ] Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia.
                [18 ] UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK.
                [19 ] Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados (CSIC-UIB), Esporles, Illes Balears 07190, Spain Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331-3803, USA.
                [20 ] UWA Oceans Institute and School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia Department of Parks and Wildlife, Kensington, Western Australia 6151, Australia.
                Article
                rspb.2014.0846
                10.1098/rspb.2014.0846
                25009065
                fab2197b-6bd7-4e3a-8829-f5c28691f587
                © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
                History

                climate change,ecosystem impacts,functional diversity,macroalgae,range shift,western boundary currents

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