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Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break

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      A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.

      Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
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        River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles

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          Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants.

          Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or 'fingerprint', in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.
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            Author and article information

            Affiliations
            [1 ]Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive; UMR CEFE CNRS 5175; 1919 route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 05 France
            [2 ]INRA; UMR 547 PIAF; F-63100 Clermont-Ferrand France
            [3 ]Clermont Université; Université Blaise Pascal; UMR 547 PIAF; F-63100 Clermont-Ferrand France
            [4 ]INRA; UMR 1334 AGAP; F-34398 Montpellier Cedex 5 France
            [5 ]INRA; US1116-Agroclim; F-84914 Avignon France
            Journal
            Global Change Biology
            Glob Change Biol
            Wiley
            13541013
            October 2016
            October 2016
            July 29 2016
            : 22
            : 10
            : 3444-3460
            10.1111/gcb.13383
            © 2016

            http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/tdm_license_1.1

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            Self URI (article page): http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/gcb.13383

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