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Background: CT angiography (CTA) and CT perfusion (CTP) are important diagnostic tools in acute ischemic stroke. We investigated the prognostic value of CTA and CTP for clinical outcome and determined whether they have additional prognostic value over patient characteristics and non-contrast CT (NCCT). Methods: We included 1,374 patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke in the prospective multicenter Dutch acute stroke study. Sixty percent of the cohort was used for deriving the predictors and the remaining 40% for validating them. We calculated the predictive values of CTA and CTP predictors for poor clinical outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3-6). Associations between CTA and CTP predictors and poor clinical outcome were assessed with odds ratios (OR). Multivariable logistic regression models were developed based on patient characteristics and NCCT predictors, and subsequently CTA and CTP predictors were added. The increase in area under the curve (AUC) value was determined to assess the additional prognostic value of CTA and CTP. Model validation was performed by assessing discrimination and calibration. Results: Poor outcome occurred in 501 patients (36.5%). Each of the evaluated CTA measures strongly predicted outcome in univariable analyses: the positive predictive value (PPV) was 59% for Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) ≤7 on CTA source images (OR 3.3; 95% CI 2.3-4.8), 63% for presence of a proximal intracranial occlusion (OR 5.1; 95% CI 3.7-7.1), 66% for poor leptomeningeal collaterals (OR 4.3; 95% CI 2.8-6.6), and 58% for a >70% carotid or vertebrobasilar stenosis/occlusion (OR 3.2; 95% CI 2.2-4.6). The same applied to the CTP measures, as the PPVs were 65% for ASPECTS ≤7 on cerebral blood volume maps (OR 5.1; 95% CI 3.7-7.2) and 53% for ASPECTS ≤7 on mean transit time maps (OR 3.9; 95% CI 2.9-5.3). The prognostic model based on patient characteristics and NCCT measures was highly predictive for poor clinical outcome (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.81-0.86). Adding CTA and CTP predictors to this model did not improve the predictive value (AUC 0.85; 95% CI 0.83-0.88). In the validation cohort, the AUC values were 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.82) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83), respectively. Calibration of the models was satisfactory. Conclusions: In patients with suspected acute ischemic stroke, admission CTA and CTP parameters are strong predictors of poor outcome and can be used to predict long-term clinical outcome. In multivariable prediction models, however, their additional prognostic value over patient characteristics and NCCT is limited in an unselected stroke population.

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Most cited references 40

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Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: a nonparametric approach.

Methods of evaluating and comparing the performance of diagnostic tests are of increasing importance as new tests are developed and marketed. When a test is based on an observed variable that lies on a continuous or graded scale, an assessment of the overall value of the test can be made through the use of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The curve is constructed by varying the cutpoint used to determine which values of the observed variable will be considered abnormal and then plotting the resulting sensitivities against the corresponding false positive rates. When two or more empirical curves are constructed based on tests performed on the same individuals, statistical analysis on differences between curves must take into account the correlated nature of the data. This paper presents a nonparametric approach to the analysis of areas under correlated ROC curves, by using the theory on generalized U-statistics to generate an estimated covariance matrix.
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Endovascular therapy for ischemic stroke with perfusion-imaging selection.

Trials of endovascular therapy for ischemic stroke have produced variable results. We conducted this study to test whether more advanced imaging selection, recently developed devices, and earlier intervention improve outcomes. We randomly assigned patients with ischemic stroke who were receiving 0.9 mg of alteplase per kilogram of body weight less than 4.5 hours after the onset of ischemic stroke either to undergo endovascular thrombectomy with the Solitaire FR (Flow Restoration) stent retriever or to continue receiving alteplase alone. All the patients had occlusion of the internal carotid or middle cerebral artery and evidence of salvageable brain tissue and ischemic core of less than 70 ml on computed tomographic (CT) perfusion imaging. The coprimary outcomes were reperfusion at 24 hours and early neurologic improvement (≥8-point reduction on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale or a score of 0 or 1 at day 3). Secondary outcomes included the functional score on the modified Rankin scale at 90 days. The trial was stopped early because of efficacy after 70 patients had undergone randomization (35 patients in each group). The percentage of ischemic territory that had undergone reperfusion at 24 hours was greater in the endovascular-therapy group than in the alteplase-only group (median, 100% vs. 37%; P<0.001). Endovascular therapy, initiated at a median of 210 minutes after the onset of stroke, increased early neurologic improvement at 3 days (80% vs. 37%, P=0.002) and improved the functional outcome at 90 days, with more patients achieving functional independence (score of 0 to 2 on the modified Rankin scale, 71% vs. 40%; P=0.01). There were no significant differences in rates of death or symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage. In patients with ischemic stroke with a proximal cerebral arterial occlusion and salvageable tissue on CT perfusion imaging, early thrombectomy with the Solitaire FR stent retriever, as compared with alteplase alone, improved reperfusion, early neurologic recovery, and functional outcome. (Funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and others; EXTEND-IA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01492725, and Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12611000969965.).
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Perfusion-CT assessment of infarct core and penumbra: receiver operating characteristic curve analysis in 130 patients suspected of acute hemispheric stroke.

Different definitions have been proposed to define the ischemic penumbra from perfusion-CT (PCT) data, based on parameters and thresholds tested only in small pilot studies. The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic evaluation of all PCT parameters (cerebral blood flow, volume [CBV], mean transit time [MTT], time-to-peak) in a large series of acute stroke patients, to determine which (combination of) parameters most accurately predicts infarct and penumbra. One hundred and thirty patients with symptoms suggesting hemispheric stroke < or =12 hours from onset were enrolled in a prospective multicenter trial. They all underwent admission PCT and follow-up diffusion-weighted imaging/fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (DWI/FLAIR); 25 patients also underwent admission DWI/FLAIR. PCT maps were assessed for absolute and relative reduced CBV, reduced cerebral blood flow, increased MTT, and increased time-to-peak. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the most accurate PCT parameter, and the optimal threshold for each parameter, using DWI/FLAIR as the gold standard. The PCT parameter that most accurately describes the tissue at risk of infarction in case of persistent arterial occlusion is the relative MTT (area under the curve=0.962), with an optimal threshold of 145%. The PCT parameter that most accurately describes the infarct core on admission is the absolute CBV (area under the curve=0.927), with an optimal threshold at 2.0 ml x 100 g(-1). In a large series of 130 patients, the optimal approach to define the infarct and the penumbra is a combined approach using 2 PCT parameters: relative MTT and absolute CBV, with dedicated thresholds.

Author and article information

Affiliations
aDepartment of Radiology, bDepartment of Neurology, Brain Center Rudolf Magnus, and cJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, dDepartment of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, Departments of eRadiology and fNeurology, VU University Medical Center, gDepartment of Neurology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, Departments of hRadiology and iNeurology, St. Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein, Departments of jRadiology and kNeurology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Departments of lRadiology and mNeurology, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven, Departments of nRadiology and oNeurology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, pDepartment of Radiology, St. Franciscus Hospital, Rotterdam, Departments of qRadiology and rNeurology, Rijnstate Hospital, Arnhem, Departments of sRadiology and tNeurology, Medical Center Haaglanden, The Hague, Departments of uRadiology and vNeurology, St. Elisabeth Hospital, Tilburg, wDepartment of Neurology, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands
Journal
CED
Cerebrovasc Dis
10.1159/issn.1015-9770
Cerebrovascular Diseases
Cerebrovasc Dis
S. Karger AG (Basel, Switzerland karger@123456karger.com http://www.karger.com )
1015-9770
1421-9786
November 2015
21 October 2015
: 40
: 5-6
: 258-269
© 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel

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Figures: 2, Tables: 4, References: 60, Pages: 12
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