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      An online decision tree for vaccine efficacy trial design during infectious disease epidemics: The InterVax-Tool

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          Highlights

          • Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trial design during outbreaks and emergencies is challenging.

          • InterVax-Tool (vaxeval.com) is a structured decision-support tool for trial design.

          • Optimal design must include epidemiological, statistical, ethical, and logistical difficulties.

          • Navigating these issues in real-time requires tools to assist in decision-making.

          • Dynamic guidance, note taking, and tailored choices are key to good user engagement.

          Abstract

          Background

          Licensed vaccines are urgently needed for emerging infectious diseases, but the nature of these epidemics causes challenges for the design of phase III trials to evaluate vaccine efficacy. Designing and executing rigorous, fast, and ethical, vaccine efficacy trials is difficult, and the decisions and limitations in the design of these trials encompass epidemiological, logistical, regulatory, statistical, and ethical dimensions.

          Results

          Trial design decisions are complex and interrelated, but current guidance documents do not lend themselves to efficient decision-making. We created InterVax-Tool ( http://vaxeval.com), an online, interactive decision-support tool, to help diverse stakeholders navigate the decisions in the design of phase III vaccine trials.

          InterVax-Tool offers high-level visual and interactive assistance through a set of four decision trees, guiding users through selection of the: (1) Primary Endpoint, (2) Target Population, (3) Randomization Scheme, and, (4) Comparator. We provide guidance on how key considerations – grouped as Epidemiological, Vaccine-related, Infrastructural, or Sociocultural – inform each decision in the trial design process.

          Conclusions

          InterVax-Tool facilitates structured, transparent, and collaborative discussion of trial design, while recording the decision-making process. Users can save and share their decisions, which is useful both for comparing proposed trial designs, and for justifying particular design choices.

          Here, we describe the goals and features of InterVax-Tool as well as its application to the design of a Zika vaccine efficacy trial.

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          Most cited references12

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: found
          • Article: found
          Is Open Access

          Predicting virus emergence amid evolutionary noise

          The study of virus disease emergence, whether it can be predicted and how it might be prevented, has become a major research topic in biomedicine. Here we show that efforts to predict disease emergence commonly conflate fundamentally different evolutionary and epidemiological time scales, and are likely to fail because of the enormous number of unsampled viruses that could conceivably emerge in humans. Although we know much about the patterns and processes of virus evolution on evolutionary time scales as depicted in family-scale phylogenetic trees, these data have little predictive power to reveal the short-term microevolutionary processes that underpin cross-species transmission and emergence. Truly understanding disease emergence therefore requires a new mechanistic and integrated view of the factors that allow or prevent viruses spreading in novel hosts. We present such a view, suggesting that both ecological and genetic aspects of virus emergence can be placed within a simple population genetic framework, which in turn highlights the importance of host population size and density in determining whether emergence will be successful. Despite this framework, we conclude that a more practical solution to preventing and containing the successful emergence of new diseases entails ongoing virological surveillance at the human–animal interface and regions of ecological disturbance.
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            • Record: found
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            • Article: not found

            Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis.

            Safe and effective vaccines could help to end the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in parts of west Africa, and mitigate future outbreaks of the virus. We assess the statistical validity and power of randomised controlled trial (RCT) and stepped-wedge cluster trial (SWCT) designs in Sierra Leone, where the incidence of Ebola virus disease is spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and is decreasing rapidly.
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              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found

              WHO R&D Blueprint: a global coordination mechanism for R&D preparedness

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Vaccine
                Vaccine
                Vaccine
                Elsevier Science
                0264-410X
                1873-2518
                18 July 2019
                18 July 2019
                : 37
                : 31
                : 4376-4381
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
                [b ]Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
                [c ]Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
                [d ]World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
                [e ]Department of Biostatistics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
                [f ]Department of Geography, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY, USA
                [g ]Kenya Medical Research Institute, Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya
                [h ]Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec, Québec, Canada
                [i ]Département de médecine sociale et préventive, Université Laval, Québec, Canada
                [j ]Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK
                [k ]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding authors at: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK (R.M. Eggo). steve.bellan@ 123456uga.edu r.eggo@ 123456lshtm.ac.uk
                Article
                S0264-410X(19)30780-7
                10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.06.019
                6620503
                31242963
                fc0c8676-4a73-4234-badc-c4f044559c7e
                © 2019 The Authors

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

                History
                : 10 September 2018
                : 30 May 2019
                : 10 June 2019
                Categories
                Article

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                vaccine trial design,outbreaks,epidemics,vaccines,public health emergency,emerging infectious diseases,scientific communication,phase iii trial,decision support system,evd, ebola virus disease,phe, public health emergency,zikv, zika virus,denv, dengue virus

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