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      Population changes in residential clusters in Japan

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      1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , *
      PLoS ONE
      Public Library of Science

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          Abstract

          Population dynamics in urban and rural areas are different. Understanding factors that contribute to local population changes has various socioeconomic and political implications. In the present study, we use population census data in Japan to examine contributors to the population growth of residential clusters between years 2005 and 2010. The data set covers the entirety of Japan and has a high spatial resolution of 500 × 500 m 2, enabling us to examine population dynamics in various parts of the country (urban and rural) using statistical analysis. We found that, in addition to the area, population density, and age, the shape of the cluster and the spatial distribution of inhabitants within the cluster are significantly related to the population growth rate of a residential cluster. Specifically, the population tends to grow if the cluster is "round" shaped (given the area) and the population is concentrated near the center rather than periphery of the cluster. Combination of the present results and analysis framework with other factors that have been omitted in the present study, such as migration, terrain, and transportation infrastructure, will be fruitful.

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          Most cited references50

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          A universal model for mobility and migration patterns.

          Introduced in its contemporary form in 1946 (ref. 1), but with roots that go back to the eighteenth century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework with which to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume and inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of the phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.
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            Econometric models based on count data. Comparisons and applications of some estimators and tests

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              Wrestling Sprawl to the Ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Data curationRole: Formal analysisRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Data curationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: ConceptualizationRole: InvestigationRole: Writing – original draftRole: Writing – review & editing
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                1932-6203
                9 May 2018
                2018
                : 13
                : 5
                : e0197144
                Affiliations
                [1 ] National Institute of Informatics, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan
                [2 ] JST, ERATO, Kawarabayashi Large Graph Project, c/o Global Research Center for Big Data Mathematics, NII, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan
                [3 ] Frontier Research Institute for Interdisciplinary Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan
                [4 ] Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
                Universitat Rovira i Virgili, SPAIN
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1567-801X
                Article
                PONE-D-17-31298
                10.1371/journal.pone.0197144
                5942835
                29742156
                fe3551b4-5e4b-484c-b988-8ec1797843f2
                © 2018 Sekiguchi et al

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 28 August 2017
                : 28 April 2018
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 6, Pages: 18
                Funding
                Funded by: Japan Science and Technology Agency (JP)
                Award ID: JPMJER1201
                Award Recipient :
                Funded by: funder-id http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002241, Japan Science and Technology Agency;
                Award ID: JPMJCR1304
                Award Recipient :
                This research is supported by Japan Science and Technology Agency ERATO Grant Number JPMJER1201, Japan [ https://www.jst.go.jp/erato/en/](TS) and Japan Science and Technology Agency CREST Grant Number JPMJCR1304, Japan [ https://www.jst.go.jp/kisoken/crest/en/](NM). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Population Biology
                Population Metrics
                Population Growth
                People and Places
                Geographical Locations
                Asia
                Japan
                Earth Sciences
                Geography
                Geographic Areas
                Urban Areas
                Research and Analysis Methods
                Research Design
                Survey Research
                Census
                Earth Sciences
                Geography
                Human Geography
                Human Mobility
                Social Sciences
                Human Geography
                Human Mobility
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Population Biology
                Population Metrics
                Population Density
                Biology and Life Sciences
                Population Biology
                Population Dynamics
                Physical Sciences
                Mathematics
                Geometry
                Fractals
                Custom metadata
                The population census data for each cell in 2005 and 2010 are available at ( http://e-stat.go.jp/SG2/eStatGIS/page/download.html). The average age of inhabitants and the fraction of workers in the tertiary industry in each prefecture of Japan are available in Tables No. 19 and No. 31 in ( http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/ListE.do?bid=000001025191&cycode=0), respectively. The reverse geocoding service provided by National Agriculture and Food Research Organization is available at ( https://www.finds.jp/rgeocode/index.html.en). To determine the prefecture of a cluster, we also used the data available at ( http://www.stat.go.jp/data/mesh/m_itiran.htm) and the map provided by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan ( https://maps.gsi.go.jp/). Where all other relevant data are available is described in the reference list.

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