Susceptible-Infected-Removed Mathematical Model under Deep Learning in Hospital Infection Control of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia

Abstract

Objective

This research aimed to explore the application of a mathematical model based on deep learning in hospital infection control of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia.

Methods

First, the epidemic data of Beijing, China, were utilized to make a definite susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model fitting to determine the estimated value of the COVID-19 removal intensity β, which was then used to do a determined SIR model and a stochastic SIR model fitting for the hospital. In addition, the reasonable β and γ estimates of the hospital were determined, and the spread of the epidemic in hospital was simulated, to discuss the impact of basal reproductive number changes, isolation, vaccination, and so forth on COVID-19.

Results

There was a certain gap between the fitting of SIR to the remover and the actual data. The fitting of the number of infections was accurate. The growth rate of the number of infections decreased after measures, such as isolation, were taken. The effect of herd immunity was achieved after the overall immunity reached 70.9%.

Conclusion

The SIR model based on deep learning and the stochastic SIR fitting model were accurate in judging the development trend of the epidemic, which can provide basis and reference for hospital epidemic infection control.