Spatiotemporal distributions of surface ozone levels in China from 2005 to 2017: A machine learning approach

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA’s terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of MERRA-2 compared with MERRA include the reduction of some spurious trends and jumps related to changes in the observing system, and reduced biases and imbalances in aspects of the water cycle. Remaining deficiencies are also identified. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams, and converged to a single near-real time stream in mid 2015. MERRA-2 products are accessible online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC).

Significance Drastic air pollution control in China since 2013 has achieved sharp decreases in fine particulate matter (PM2.5), but ozone pollution has not improved. After removing the effect of meteorological variability, we find that surface ozone has increased in megacity clusters of China, notably Beijing and Shanghai. The increasing trend cannot be simply explained by changes in anthropogenic precursor [NOx and volatile organic compound (VOC)] emissions, particularly in North China Plain (NCP). The most important cause of the increasing ozone in NCP appears to be the decrease in PM2.5, slowing down the sink of hydroperoxy radicals and thus speeding up ozone production. Decreasing ozone in the future will require a combination of NOx and VOC emission controls to overcome the effect of decreasing PM2.5.

High concentrations of ozone in urban and industrial regions worldwide have long been a major air quality issue. With the rapid increase in fossil fuel consumption in China over the past three decades, the emission of chemical precursors to ozone-nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds-has increased sharply, surpassing that of North America and Europe and raising concerns about worsening ozone pollution in China. Historically, research and control have prioritized acid rain, particulate matter, and more recently fine particulate matter (PM2.5). In contrast, less is known about ozone pollution, partly due to a lack of monitoring of atmospheric ozone and its precursors until recently. This review summarizes the main findings from published papers on the characteristics and sources and processes of ozone and ozone precursors in the boundary layer of urban and rural areas of China, including concentration levels, seasonal variation, meteorology conducive to photochemistry and pollution transport, key production and loss processes, ozone dependence on nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, and the effects of ozone on crops and human health. Ozone concentrations exceeding the ambient air quality standard by 100-200% have been observed in China's major urban centers such as Jing-Jin-Ji, the Yangtze River delta, and the Pearl River delta, and limited studies suggest harmful effect of ozone on human health and agricultural corps; key chemical precursors and meteorological conditions conductive to ozone pollution have been investigated, and inter-city/region transport of ozone is significant. Several recommendations are given for future research and policy development on ground-level ozone.